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Consider a one-sided Markov additive process with an upper and a lower barrier, where each can be either reflecting or terminating. For both defective and non-defective processes and all possible scenarios we identify the corresponding…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-20 Jevgenijs Ivanovs

Filtering---estimating the state of a partially observable Markov process from a sequence of observations---is one of the most widely studied problems in control theory, AI, and computational statistics. Exact computation of the posterior…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-07 Bhaskara Marthi , Hanna Pasula , Stuart Russell , Yuval Peres

We establish an abstract, effective, exponential large deviations type estimate for Markov systems satisfying a weaker form of mixing. We employ this result to derive such estimates, as well as a central limit theorem, for the skew product…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-07-17 Ao Cai , Pedro Duarte , Silvius Klein

We introduce a general algorithm for the computation of the scale functions of a spectrally negative L\'evy process $X$, based on a natural weak approximation of $X$ via upwards skip-free continuous-time Markov chains with stationary…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-21 Aleksandar Mijatović , Matija Vidmar , Saul Jacka

We consider the Markov chain approximations for singular stable-like processes. First we obtain properties of some Markov chains. Then we construct the approximating Markov chains and give a necessary condition for weak convergence of these…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-10-11 Fangjun Xu

In this paper we establish spatial central limit theorems for a large class of supercritical branching Markov processes with general spatial-dependent branching mechanisms. These are generalizations of the spatial central limit theorems…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-06 Y. -X. Ren , R. Song , R. Zhang

A large deviations principle is established for the joint law of the empirical measure and the flow measure of a renewal Markov process on a finite graph. We do not assume any bound on the arrival times, allowing heavy tailed distributions.…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-02-18 Mauro Mariani , Lorenzo Zambotti

The concepts of probability, statistics and stochastic theory are being successfully used in structural engineering. Markov Chain modelling is a simple stochastic process model that has found its application in both describing stochastic…

Applications · Statistics 2007-08-14 K. Balaji Rao

We study fixed-policy evaluation for finite Markov chains that may be reducible and periodic. Classical evaluation methods with gain and bias decomposition are not always diagnostic: the gain records only invariant Ces\`aro averages, while…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-11 Yang Xu , Vaneet Aggarwal

We study Markov bases of decomposable graphical models consisting of primitive moves (i.e., square-free moves of degree two) by determining the structure of fibers of sample size two. We show that the number of elements of fibers of sample…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-03-04 Hisayuki Hara , Satoshi Aoki , Akimichi Takemura

This article continues our study of Markovian consistency and Markov copulae. In particular, we characterize the weak Markovian consistency for finite Markov chains. We discuss some aspects of dependence between the components of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-03-12 Tomasz R. Bielecki , Jacek Jakubowski , Mariusz Niewęgłowski

This article is concerned with moderate deviation principles of a general class of mean eld type interacting particle models. We discuss functional moderate deviations of the occupation measures for both the strong -topology on the space of…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-04-17 Pierre Del Moral , Shulan Hu , Liming Wu

A discrete time branching process where the offspring distribution is generation-dependent, and the number of reproductive individuals is controlled by a random mechanism is considered. This model is a Markov chain but, in general, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-30 Miguel González , Carmen Minuesa , Manuel Mota , Inés del Puerto , Alfonso Ramos

We study a colored generalization of the famous simple-switch Markov chain for sampling the set of graphs with a fixed degree sequence. Here we consider the space of graphs with colored vertices, in which we fix the degree sequence and…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2026-05-06 Félix Almendra-Hernández , Jesús A. De Loera , Sonja Petrović

The large deviations at Level 2.5 are applied to Markov processes with absorbing states in order to obtain the explicit extinction rate of metastable quasi-stationary states in terms of their empirical time-averaged density and of their…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-01-13 Cecile Monthus

We study the Markov chain $x_{n+1}=ax_n+b_n$ on a finite field $\mathbb{F}_p$, where $a \in \mathbb{F}_p$ is fixed and $b_n$ are independent and identically distributed random variables in $\mathbb{F}_p$. Conditionally on the Riemann…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-25 Emmanuel Breuillard , Péter P. Varjú

Suppose $ E$ is a space with a null-recurrent Markov kernel $ P$. Furthermore, suppose there are infinite particles with variable weights on $ E$ performing a random walk following $ P$. Let $ X_{t}$ be a weighted functional of the position…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-12-01 Souvik Ghosh

The linear fractional stable motion generalizes two prominent classes of stochastic processes, namely stable L\'evy processes, and fractional Brownian motion. For this reason it may be regarded as a basic building block for continuous time…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-17 Fabian Mies , Mark Podolskij

When the initial and transition probabilities of a finite Markov chain in discrete time are not well known, we should perform a sensitivity analysis. This can be done by considering as basic uncertainty models the so-called credal sets that…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-11-24 Gert de Cooman , Filip Hermans , Erik Quaeghebeur

We prove a moderate deviation principle for the continuous time interpolation of discrete time recursive stochastic processes. The methods of proof are somewhat different from the corresponding large deviation result, and in particular the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-01-24 Paul Dupuis , Dane Johnson
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