Related papers: Nonlinear Hawkes Process with Gaussian Process Sel…

Direct quantile regression involves estimating a given quantile of a response variable as a function of input variables. We present a new framework for direct quantile regression where a Gaussian process model is learned, minimising the…

Non-Gaussian observations such as binary responses are common in some computer experiments. Motivated by the analysis of a class of cell adhesion experiments, we introduce a generalized Gaussian process model for binary responses, which…

Gaussian process regression in its most simplified form assumes normal homoscedastic noise and utilizes analytically tractable mean and covariance functions of predictive posterior distribution using Gaussian conditioning. Its…

Diffusion processes are a class of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) providing a rich family of expressive models that arise naturally in dynamic modelling tasks. Probabilistic inference and learning under generative models with…

Variational autoencoders often assume isotropic Gaussian priors and mean-field posteriors, hence do not exploit structure in scenarios where we may expect similarity or consistency across latent variables. Gaussian process variational…

Causal discovery and inference from observational data is an essential problem in statistics posing both modeling and computational challenges. These are typically addressed by imposing strict assumptions on the joint distribution such as…

We introduce a model-independent approximation for the branching ratio of Hawkes self-exciting point processes. Our estimator requires knowing only the mean and variance of the event count in a sufficiently large time window, statistics…

Models with dimension more than the available sample size are now commonly used in various applications. A sensible inference is possible using a lower-dimensional structure. In regression problems with a large number of predictors, the…

We propose a novel probabilistic framework to model continuous-time interaction events data. Our goal is to infer the \emph{implicit} community structure underlying the temporal interactions among entities, and also to exploit how the…

Self-exciting Hawkes processes are used to model events which cluster in time and space, and have been widely studied in seismology under the name of the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. In the ETAS framework, the occurrence…

In a discrete-time setting, we consider an arrival process $\left\{\xi_n \, \middle| \, n = 1, 2, \ldots \right\}$, which models the occurrence of events, and a corresponding point process $\left\{H_n \, \middle| \, n = 1, 2, \ldots…

We introduce and establish the main properties of QHawkes ("Quadratic" Hawkes) models. QHawkes models generalize the Hawkes price models introduced in E. Bacry et al. (2014), by allowing all feedback effects in the jump intensity that are…

Gaussian process regression is a powerful Bayesian nonlinear regression method. Recent research has enabled the capture of many types of observations using non-Gaussian likelihoods. To deal with various tasks in spatial modeling, we benefit…

Bayesian filtering is a general framework for recursively estimating the state of a dynamical system. Classical solutions such that Kalman filter and Particle filter are introduced in this report. Gaussian processes have been introduced as…

Hawkes processes are a class of simple point processes that are self-exciting and have clustering effect, with wide applications in finance, social networks and many other fields. This paper considers a self-exciting Hawkes process where…

The Hawkes process is a counting process that has self- and mutually-exciting features with many applications in various fields. In recent years, there have been many interests in the mean-field results of the Hawkes process and its…

Advances in predictive modeling across multiple disciplines have yielded generative models capable of high veracity in predicting macroscopic functional responses of materials. Correspondingly, of interest is the inverse problem of finding…

We introduce a Bayesian framework for inference with a supervised version of the Gaussian process latent variable model. The framework overcomes the high correlations between latent variables and hyperparameters by using an unbiased pseudo…

We introduce and study an alternative form of the chaotic expansion for counting processes using the Poisson imbedding representation; we name this alternative form \textit{pseudo-chaotic expansion}. As an application, we prove that the…

In this paper, we study a discrete-time analogue of a Hawkes process, modelled as a Poisson autoregressive process whose parameters depend on the past of the trajectory. The model is characterized to allow these parameters to take negative…