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Related papers: On the $\alpha$-lazy version of Markov chains in e…

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In this paper we discuss how the notion of subgeometric ergodicity in Markov chain theory can be exploited to study stationarity and ergodicity of nonlinear time series models. Subgeometric ergodicity means that the transition probability…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-11-11 Mika Meitz , Pentti Saikkonen

Perturbation theory for Markov chains addresses the question how small differences in the transitions of Markov chains are reflected in differences between their distributions. We prove powerful and flexible bounds on the distance of the…

Computation · Statistics 2017-02-27 Daniel Rudolf , Nikolaus Schweizer

In this paper we develop a statistical estimation technique to recover the transition kernel $P$ of a Markov chain $X=(X_m)_{m \in \mathbb N}$ in presence of censored data. We consider the situation where only a sub-sequence of $X$ is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-05 Flavia Barsotti , Yohann De Castro , Thibault Espinasse , Paul Rochet

Using the renewal approach we prove exponential inequalities for additive functionals and empirical processes of ergodic Markov chains, thus obtaining counterparts of inequalities for sums of independent random variables. The inequalities…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-18 Radosław Adamczak , Witold Bednorz

We consider a stationary regularly varying time series which can be expressedas a function of a geometrically ergodic Markov chain. We obtain practical conditionsfor the weak convergence of the tail array sums and feasible estimators…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-09-25 Rafal Kulik , Philippe Soulier , Olivier Wintenberger , Rafa Kulik

We consider the problem of estimating from sample paths the absolute spectral gap $\gamma_*$ of a reversible, irreducible and aperiodic Markov chain $(X_t)_{t \in \mathbb{N}}$ over a finite state space $\Omega$. We propose the ${\tt UCPI}$…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-08 Richard Combes , Mikael Touati

We show how to map the states of an ergodic Markov chain to Euclidean space so that the squared distance between states is the expected commuting time. We find a minimax characterization of commuting times, and from this we get monotonicity…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-10-27 Peter G. Doyle , Jean Steiner

We prove an ergodic theorem for Markov chains indexed by the Ulam-Harris-Neveu tree over large subsets with arbitrary shape under two assumptions: with high probability, two vertices in the large subset are far from each other and have…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-11 Julien Weibel

A finite ergodic Markov chain is said to exhibit cutoff if its distance to stationarity remains close to 1 over a certain number of iterations and then abruptly drops to near 0 on a much shorter time scale. Discovered in the context of card…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-10 Anna Ben-Hamou , Justin Salez

Consider the partial sums {S_t} of a real-valued functional F(Phi(t)) of a Markov chain {Phi(t)} with values in a general state space. Assuming only that the Markov chain is geometrically ergodic and that the functional F is bounded, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Ioannis Kontoyiannis , Sean Meyn

We give computable bounds on the rate of convergence of the transition probabilities to the stationary distribution for a certain class of geometrically ergodic Markov chains. Our results are different from earlier estimates of Meyn and…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Peter H. Baxendale

The utility of a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is, in large part, determined by the size of the spectral gap of the corresponding Markov operator. However, calculating (and even approximating) the spectral gaps of practical Monte Carlo…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-08 Qian Qin , James P. Hobert , Kshitij Khare

General characterizations of ergodic Markov chains have been developed in considerable detail. In this paper, we study the transience for discrete-time Markov chains on general state spaces, including the geometric transience and algebraic…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-01-08 Yong-Hua Mao , Yan-Hong Song

This paper generalizes the work of Kendall [Electron. Comm. Probab. 9 (2004) 140--151], which showed that perfect simulation, in the form of dominated coupling from the past, is always possible (although not necessarily practical) for…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-11-09 Stephen B. Connor , Wilfrid S. Kendall

This article provides the first procedure for computing a fully data-dependent interval that traps the mixing time $t_{\text{mix}}$ of a finite reversible ergodic Markov chain at a prescribed confidence level. The interval is computed from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-11-04 Daniel Hsu , Aryeh Kontorovich , Csaba Szepesvári

Let $\Gamma$ be a graph and $P$ be a reversible random walk on $\Gamma$. From the $L^2$ analyticity of the Markov operator $P$, we deduce that an iterate of odd exponent of $P$ is `lazy', that is there exists an integer $k$ such that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-12 Joseph Feneuil

We consider a class of small-sample distribution estimators over noisy channels. Our estimators are designed for repetition channels, and rely on properties of the runs of the observed sequences. These runs are modeled via a special type of…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2012-02-07 Farzad Farnoud , Narayana P. Santhanam , Olgica Milenkovic

Empirical likelihood is a powerful semi-parametric method increasingly investigated in the literature. However, most authors essentially focus on an i.i.d. setting. In the case of dependent data, the classical empirical likelihood method…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-02-17 Hugo Harari-Kermadec

Ergodicity is a fundamental issue for a stochastic process. In this paper, we refine results on ergodicity for a general type of Markov chain to a specific type or the $GI/G/1$-type Markov chain, which has many interesting and important…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-08-28 YongHua Mao , Yongming Tai , Yiqiang Q. Zhao , Jiezhong Zou

We study the limit behaviour of upper and lower bounds on expected time averages in imprecise Markov chains; a generalised type of Markov chain where the local dynamics, traditionally characterised by transition probabilities, are now…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-02-10 Natan T'Joens , Jasper De Bock