Related papers: Power Grid Reliability Estimation via Adaptive Imp…
Article describes the results of the development and using of Rare-Event Monte-Carlo Simulation Algorithms for Dynamic Fault Trees Estimation. For Fault Trees estimation usually analytical methods are used (Minimal Cut sets, Markov Chains,…
The increasing use of renewable energy sources with variable output, such as solar photovoltaic and wind power generation, calls for Smart Grids that effectively manage flexible loads and energy storage. The ability to forecast consumption…
Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) are often tested in simulation to estimate the probability they will violate safety specifications. Two common issues arise when using existing techniques to produce this estimation: If violations occur rarely,…
This paper presents a complex systems overview of a power grid network. In recent years, concerns about the robustness of the power grid have grown because of several cascading outages in different parts of the world. In this paper,…
We study the spreading of renewable power fluctuations through grids with Ohmic losses on the lines. By formulating a network adapted linear response theory, we find that vulnerability patterns are linked to the left Laplacian eigenvectors…
Increasing shares of fluctuating renewable energy sources induce higher and higher power flow variability at the transmission level. The question arises as to what extent existing networks can absorb additional fluctuating power injection…
Higher levels of renewable electricity generation increase uncertainty in power system operation. To ensure secure system operation, new tools that account for this uncertainty are required. In this paper, we formulate a chance-constrained…
In this paper, we propose an efficient importance sampling algorithm for rare event simulation under copula models. In the algorithm, the derived optimal probability measure is based on the criterion of minimizing the variance of the…
The attainment of carbon neutrality requires a research agenda that addresses the technical and economic challenges that will be encountered as we progress toward 100% renewable electricity generation. Increasing proportions of variable…
Smart grids are critical cyber-physical systems that are vital to our energy future. Smart grids' fault resilience is dependent on the use of advanced protection systems that can reliably adapt to changing conditions within the grid. The…
Electrical power grids are vulnerable to cascading failures that can lead to large blackouts. Detection and prevention of cascading failures in power grids is impor- tant. Currently, grid operators mainly monitor the state (loading level)…
This paper aims to investigate the risk identification problem of power transmission system that is integrated with renewable energy sources. In practice, the fluctuation of power generation from renewable energy sources can lead to severe…
The increasing penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) has brought significant challenges for power systems planning and operation. These highly variable sources are typically distributed in the grid; therefore, a detailed…
We describe an adaptive importance sampling algorithm for rare events that is based on a dual stochastic control formulation of a path sampling problem. Specifically, we focus on path functionals that have the form of cumulate generating…
As illustrated in recent years (Superstorm Sandy, the Northeast Ice Storm of 1998, etc.), extreme weather events pose an enormous threat to the electric power transmission systems and the associated socio-economic systems that depend on…
The energy transition is causing many stability-related challenges for power systems. Transient stability refers to the ability of a power grid's bus angles to retain synchronism after the occurrence of a major fault. In this paper a…
In this work, we develop an importance sampling estimator by coupling the reduced-order model and the generative model in a problem setting of uncertainty quantification. The target is to estimate the probability that the quantity of…
The integration of renewable resources has increased in power generation as a means to reduce the fossil fuel usage and mitigate its adverse effects on the environment. However, renewables like solar energy are stochastic in nature due to…
The paradigm shift in the electric power grid necessitates a revisit of existing control methods to ensure the grid's security and resilience. In particular, the increased uncertainties and rapidly changing operational conditions in power…
We propose a mathematical framework for designing robust networks of coupled phase-oscillators by leveraging a vulnerability measure proposed by Tyloo et. al that quantifies how much a small perturbation to a phase-oscillator's natural…