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A novel methodology for short-term energy forecasting using an Extreme Learning Machine ($\mathtt{ELM}$) is proposed. Using six years of hourly data collected in Corsica (France) from multiple energy sources (solar, wind, hydro, thermal,…

The perspective of developing trustworthy AI for critical applications in science and engineering requires machine learning techniques that are capable of estimating their own uncertainty. In the context of regression, instead of estimating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Quentin Duchemin , Guillaume Obozinski

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models often underperform compared to simpler climatology-based precipitation forecasts in northern tropical Africa, even after statistical postprocessing. AI-based forecasting models show promise but have…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-08-30 Athul Rasheeda Satheesh , Peter Knippertz , Andreas H. Fink

This study presents a novel machine learning-based (ML) framework that utilizes the ConvLSTM-1D model to hindcast or forecast wave heights at coastal locations using a nonuniform array of wind observations. This approach was applied to Lake…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-01-02 Hazem U. Abdelhady , Cary D. Troy

Improving statistical forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is limited by complex nonlinear interactions and difficulty in identifying relevant predictors. Conventional methods prioritize correlation or fit, often overlooking…

Deep neural networks offer an alternative paradigm for modeling weather conditions. The ability of neural models to make a prediction in less than a second once the data is available and to do so with very high temporal and spatial…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-07-07 Marcin Andrychowicz , Lasse Espeholt , Di Li , Samier Merchant , Alexander Merose , Fred Zyda , Shreya Agrawal , Nal Kalchbrenner

The ability to predict wind is crucial for both energy production and weather forecasting. Mechanistic models that form the basis of traditional forecasting perform poorly near the ground. In this paper, we take an alternative data-driven…

Accurate wave height prediction is critical for maritime safety and coastal resilience, yet conventional physics-based models and traditional machine learning methods face challenges in computational efficiency and nonlinear dynamics…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Yilin Zhai , Hongyuan Shi , Chao Zhan , Qing Wang , Zaijin You , Nan Wang

Oceanographic forecasting impacts various sectors of society by supporting environmental conservation and economic activities. Based on global circulation models, traditional forecasting methods are computationally expensive and slow,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-06-09 Giovanny A. Cuervo-Londoño , Javier Sánchez , Ángel Rodríguez-Santana

This article explores the concepts of ocean wave multivariate multistep forecasting, reconstruction and feature selection. We introduce recurrent neural network frameworks, integrated with Bayesian hyperparameter optimization and Elastic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-03 Mohammad Pirhooshyaran , Lawrence V. Snyder

We present a comprehensive inter-comparison of linear regression (LR), stochastic, and deep-learning approaches for reduced-order statistical emulation of ocean circulation. The reference dataset is provided by an idealized, eddy-resolving,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-10-04 Niraj Agarwal , Dmitri Kondrashov , Peter Dueben , Evgenii Ryzhov , Pavel Berloff

Epileptic seizure prediction has gained considerable interest in the computational Epilepsy research community. This paper presents a Machine Learning based method for epileptic seizure prediction which outperforms state-of-the art methods.…

Medical Physics · Physics 2021-06-09 Remy Ben Messaoud , Mario Chavez

Global return values of marine wind speed and significant wave height are estimated from very large aggregates of archived ensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time. Long lead time ensures that the forecasts represent independent draws from…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2014-07-22 Øyvind Breivik , Ole Johan Aarnes , Saleh Abdalla , Jean-Raymond Bidlot , Peter A. E. M. Janssen

Deep learning-based tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting methods have demonstrated significant potential and application advantages, as they feature much lower computational cost and faster operation speed than numerical weather prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Qixiang Li , Yuan Zhou , Shuwei Huo , Chong Wang , Xiaofeng Li

Accurate short-term wind speed forecasting is essential for large-scale integration of wind power generation. However, the seasonal and stochastic characteristics of wind speed make forecasting a challenging task. This study uses a new…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2020-02-24 Mehdi Neshat , Meysam Majidi Nezhad , Ehsan Abbasnejad , Lina Bertling Tjernberg , Davide Astiaso Garcia , Bradley Alexander , Markus Wagner

Blocking events are an important cause of extreme weather, especially long-lasting blocking events that trap weather systems in place. The duration of blocking events is, however, underestimated in climate models. Explainable Artificial…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-04-15 Huan Zhang , Justin Finkel , Dorian S. Abbot , Edwin P. Gerber , Jonathan Weare

Sub-seasonal climate forecasting (SSF) focuses on predicting key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation in the 2-week to 2-month time scales. Skillful SSF would have immense societal value, in areas such as agricultural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-25 Sijie He , Xinyan Li , Timothy DelSole , Pradeep Ravikumar , Arindam Banerjee

New data was obtained for a frequency band that had not been so well-studied for sea surface probing applications before. During the described 2-weeks sea experiment 1-3 kHz tonal pulses were emitted from a platform, located on the northern…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-05-31 Alexey V. Ermoshkin , Dmitry A. Kosteev , Alexander A. Ponomarenko , Dmitry D. Razumov , Mikhail B. Salin

Site-specific weather forecasts are essential to accurate prediction of power demand and are consequently of great interest to energy operators. However, weather forecasts from current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models lack the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-08-02 MengMeng Han , Tennessee Leeuwenburg , Brad Murphy

The forecast of wave variables are important for several applications that depend on a better description of the ocean state. Due to the chaotic behaviour of the differential equations which model this problem, a well know strategy to…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-18 Felipe Crivellaro Minuzzi , Leandro Farina