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Introduction: For COVID-19 patients accurate prediction of disease severity and mortality risk would greatly improve care delivery and resource allocation. There are many patient-related factors, such as pre-existing comorbidities that…

COVID-19 is a pandemic disease that began to rapidly spread in the US with the first case detected on January 19, 2020, in Washington State. March 9, 2020, and then increased rapidly with total cases of 25,739 as of April 20, 2020. The…

COVID-19 continues to cause a significant impact on public health. To minimize this impact, policy makers undertake containment measures that however, when carried out disproportionately to the actual threat, as a result if errorneous…

Large-scale testing is considered key to assess the state of the current COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, the link between the reported case numbers and the true state of the pandemic remains elusive. We develop mathematical models based on…

Purpose: This paper proposes a methodology and a computational tool to study the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the world and to perform a trend analysis to assess its local dynamics. Methods: Mathematical functions are employed to describe…

This paper provides a formal evaluation of the predictive performance of a model (and its various updates) developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) for predicting daily deaths attributed to COVID19 for each state…

The unprecedented global crisis brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic has sparked numerous efforts to create predictive models for the detection and prognostication of SARS-CoV-2 infections with the goal of helping health systems allocate…

Classical epidemiological models assume homogeneous populations. There have been important extensions to model heterogeneous populations, when the identity of the sub-populations is known, such as age group or geographical location. Here,…

Countries officially record the number of COVID-19 cases based on medical tests of a subset of the population with unknown participation bias. For prevalence estimation, the official information is typically discarded and, instead, small…

We propose a deterministic SAIVRD model and a stochastic SARV model of the epidemic COVID-19 involving asymptomatic infections and vaccinations to conduct data forecasts using time-dependent parameters. The forecast by our deterministic…

This paper studies if and to which extent COVID-19 epidemics can be controlled by authorities taking decisions on public health measures on the basis of daily reports of swab test results, active cases and total cases. A suitably simplified…

Coronavirus outbreak is one of the most challenging pandemics for the entire human population of the planet Earth. Techniques such as the isolation of infected persons and maintaining social distancing are the only preventive measures…

More than ever COVID-19 is putting pressure on health systems all around the world, especially in Brazil. In this study we propose an analytical approach based on statistics and machine learning that uses lab exam data coming from patients…

While COVID-19 has impacted humans for a long time, people search the web for pandemic-related information, causing anxiety. From a theoretic perspective, previous studies have confirmed that the number of COVID-19 cases can cause negative…

In this paper, we propose a deep learning model to forecast the range of increase in COVID-19 infected cases in future days and we present a novel method to compute equidimensional representations of multivariate time series and…

Accurate forecasts of COVID-19 is central to resource management and building strategies to deal with the epidemic. We propose a heterogeneous infection rate model with human mobility for epidemic modeling, a preliminary version of which we…

COVID-19 pandemic is an ongoing global pandemic which has caused unprecedented disruptions in the public health sector and global economy. The virus, SARS-CoV-2 is responsible for the rapid transmission of coronavirus disease. Due to its…

The role of epidemiological models is crucial for informing public health officials during a public health emergency, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, traditional epidemiological models fail to capture the time-varying effects of…

This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, SIRD model, to allow for time varying parameters for real-time measurement of the stance of the COVID-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized…

COVID-19 has affected more than 223 countries worldwide. There is a pressing need for non invasive, low costs and highly scalable solutions to detect COVID-19, especially in low-resource countries where PCR testing is not ubiquitously…