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A pricing formula for discount bonds, based on the consideration of the market perception of future liquidity risk, is established. An information-based model for liquidity is then introduced, which is used to obtain an expression for the…
Predicting market movements based on the sentiment of news media has a long tradition in data analysis. With advances in natural language processing, transformer architectures have emerged that enable contextually aware sentiment…
Detecting important events in high volume news streams is an important task for a variety of purposes.The volume and rate of online news increases the need for automated event detection methods thatcan operate in real time. In this paper we…
We show how text from news articles can be used to predict intraday price movements of financial assets using support vector machines. Multiple kernel learning is used to combine equity returns with text as predictive features to increase…
Automatically generated political event data is an important part of the social science data ecosystem. The approaches for generating this data, though, have remained largely the same for two decades. During this time, the field of…
Clustering web documents has numerous applications, such as aggregating news articles into meaningful events, detecting trends and hot topics on the Web, preserving diversity in search results, etc. At the same time, the importance of named…
Process mining focuses on the analysis of recorded event data in order to gain insights about the true execution of business processes. While foundational process mining techniques treat such data as sequences of abstract events, more…
News articles are driven by the informational sources journalists use in reporting. Modeling when, how and why sources get used together in stories can help us better understand the information we consume and even help journalists with the…
Our world is shaped by events of various complexity. This includes both small-scale local events like local farmer markets and large complex events like political and military conflicts. The latter are typically not observed directly but…
Using machine learning and alternative data for the prediction of financial markets has been a popular topic in recent years. Many financial variables such as stock price, historical volatility and trade volume have already been through…
Information resources such as newspapers have produced unstructured text data in various languages related to the corona outbreak since December 2019. Analyzing these unstructured texts is time-consuming without representing them in a…
A stream of unstructured news can be a valuable source of hidden relations between different entities, such as financial institutions, countries, or persons. We present an approach to continuously collect online news, recognize relevant…
The paper proposes a method of financial time series forecasting taking into account the semantics of news. For the semantic analysis of financial news the sampling of negative and positive words in economic sense was formed based on…
Sentiment-based stock prediction systems aim to explore sentiment or event signals from online corpora and attempt to relate the signals to stock price variations. Both the feature-based and neural-networks-based approaches have delivered…
With the widespread adoption of process mining in organizations, the field of process science is seeing an increase in the demand for ad-hoc analysis techniques of non-standard event data. An example of such data are uncertain event data:…
Understanding causality is a core aspect of intelligence. The Event Causality Identification with Causal News Corpus Shared Task addresses two aspects of this challenge: Subtask 1 aims at detecting causal relationships in texts, and Subtask…
Stock prices move as piece-wise trending fluctuation rather than a purely random walk. Traditionally, the prediction of future stock movements is based on the historical trading record. Nowadays, with the development of social media, many…
Learning causal and temporal relationships between events is an important step towards deeper story and commonsense understanding. Though there are abundant datasets annotated with event relations for story comprehension, many have no…
Predicting financial markets and stock price movements requires analyzing a company's performance, historic price movements, industry-specific events alongside the influence of human factors such as social media and press coverage. We…
Finance-related news such as Bloomberg News, CNN Business and Forbes are valuable sources of real data for market screening systems. In news, an expert shares opinions beyond plain technical analyses that include context such as political,…