Related papers: Order Effects in Bayesian Updates

In Bayesian statistics, the choice of prior distribution is often debatable, especially if prior knowledge is limited or data are scarce. In imprecise probability, sets of priors are used to accurately model and reflect prior knowledge.…

For many economic questions, the empirical results are not interesting unless they are strong. For these questions, theorizing before the results are known is not always optimal. Instead, the optimal sequencing of theory and empirics trades…

Over time, there have hen refinements in the way that probability distributions are used for representing beliefs. Models which rely on single probability distributions depict a complete ordering among the propositions of interest, yet…

Under adaptive progressive Type-II censoring schemes, order restricted inference based on competing risks data is discussed in this article. The latent failure lifetimes for the competing causes are assumed to follow Weibull distributions,…

Most of the stochastic orders for comparing random variables, considered in the literature, are afflicted with two main drawbacks: (i) lack of connex property and (ii) lack of consideration of any dependence structure between the random…

Discovering causal relationships is a hard task, often hindered by the need for intervention, and often requiring large amounts of data to resolve statistical uncertainty. However, humans quickly arrive at useful causal relationships. One…

Summary statistics of the likelihood, such as the Bayesian evidence, offer a principled way of comparing models and assessing tension between, or within, the results of physical experiments. Noisy realisations of the data induce scatter in…

Model-checking is one of the most powerful techniques for verifying systems and programs, which since the pioneering results by Knapik et al., Ong, and Kobayashi, is known to be applicable to functional programs with higher-order types…

Label bias occurs when the outcome of interest is not directly observable and instead, modeling is performed with proxy labels. When the difference between the true outcome and the proxy label is correlated with predictors, this can yield…

In experimental design, aliasing of effects occurs in fractional factorial experiments, where certain low order factorial effects are indistinguishable from certain high order interactions: low order contrasts may be orthogonal to one…

Bayesian model comparison is often based on the posterior distribution over the set of compared models. This distribution is often observed to concentrate on a single model even when other measures of model fit or forecasting ability…

Bayes Factors, the Bayesian tool for hypothesis testing, are receiving increasing attention in the literature. Compared to their frequentist rivals ($p$-values or test statistics), Bayes Factors have the conceptual advantage of providing…

In a probability-based reasoning system, Bayes' theorem and its variations are often used to revise the system's beliefs. However, if the explicit conditions and the implicit conditions of probability assignments `me properly distinguished,…

Bayesian inference --- although becoming popular in physics and chemistry --- is hampered up to now by the vagueness of its notion of prior probability. Some of its supporters argue that this vagueness is the unavoidable consequence of the…

Memory effects play a crucial role in social interactions and decision-making processes. This paper proposes a novel fractional-order bounded confidence opinion dynamics model to characterize the memory effects in system states. Building…

Negative information often exerts a disproportionately strong impact on human decision-making, a phenomenon known as the negativity bias. In behavioral economics, this effect is formally captured by Prospect Theory, which posits that losses…

We introduce an information order on experiments based on weighted garbling, a generalization of the standard notion of garbling. In this order, an experiment is more informative than another if the latter is a weighted garbling of the…

Empirical studies in various social sciences often involve categorical outcomes with inherent ordering, such as self-evaluations of subjective well-being and self-assessments in health domains. While ordered choice models, such as the…

Perceptual judgments of sequential stimuli are systematically biased by prior expectations and by the temporal structure of sensory input. In haptic discrimination tasks, these effects often manifest as time-order asymmetries, whereby the…

We develop a result on expected posteriors for Bayesians with heterogenous priors, dubbed information validates the prior (IVP). Under familiar ordering requirements, Anne expects a (Blackwell) more informative experiment to bring Bob's…