Related papers: Order Effects in Bayesian Updates
This paper examines common assumptions regarding the decision-making internal environment for intelligent agents and investigates issues related to processing of memory and belief states to help obtain better understanding of the responses.…
Sequential measurements of non-commuting observables produce order effects that are well-known in quantum physics. But their conceptual basis, a significant measurement interaction, is relevant for far more general situations. We argue that…
We study conditioning on null events, or surprises, and behaviorally characterize the Ordered Surprises (OS) representation of beliefs. For feasible events, our Decision Maker (DM) is Bayesian. For null events, our DM considers a hierarchy…
Experiments on decision making under uncertainty are known to display a classical pattern of risk aversion and risk seeking referred to as "fourfold pattern" (or "reflection effect") , but recent experiments varying the speed and order of…
Background: Confirmation bias is the tendency to acquire or evaluate new information in a way that is consistent with one's preexisting beliefs. It is omnipresent in psychology, economics, and even scientific practices. Prior theoretical…
In their target article, \citet{WangBusemeyer13} [A quantum question order model supported by empirical tests of an a priori and precise prediction. \emph{Topics in Cognitive Science}] discuss question order effects in terms of incompatible…
This paper experimentally studies whether individuals hold a first-order belief that others apply Bayes' rule to incorporate private information into their beliefs, which is a fundamental assumption in many Bayesian and non-Bayesian social…
In recent years, quantum mechanics has been actively used in areas outside of physics, such as psychology, sociology, theory of decision-making, game theory, and others. In particular, quantum mechanics is used to explain the paradoxes…
In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ) - the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model - are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update…
Confirmation bias is a cognitive bias that adversely affects management decisions, and mathematical modelling is an aid to its detailed understanding. Bias in opinion update about the value of a parameter is modelled here assuming that…
With the power of large pretrained language models, various research works have integrated knowledge into dialogue systems. The traditional techniques treat knowledge as part of the input sequence for the dialogue system, prepending a set…
The counterfactual distribution models the effect of the treatment in the untreated group. While most of the work focuses on the expected values of the treatment effect, one may be interested in the whole counterfactual distribution or…
We construct a probabilistic coherence measure for information sets which determines a partial coherence ordering. This measure is applied in constructing a criterion for expanding our beliefs in the face of new information. A number of…
Scientific theories can often be formulated using equality and order constraints on the relative effects in a linear regression model. For example, it may be expected that the effect of the first predictor is larger than the effect of the…
In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ) --- the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model --- are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update…
The application of principles of Quantum Mechanics in areas outside of physics has been getting increasing attention in the scientific community in an emergent discipline called Quantum Cognition. These principles have been applied to…
Here we focus on the description of the mechanisms behind the process of information aggregation and decision making, a basic step to understand emergent phenomena in society, such as trends, information spreading or the wisdom of crowds.…
Using instruments comprising ordered responses to items are ubiquitous for studying many constructs of interest. However, using such an item response format may lead to items with response categories infrequently endorsed or unendorsed…
In this article, I investigate the use of Bayesian updating rules applied to modeling social agents in the case of continuos opinions models. Given another agent statement about the continuous value of a variable $x$, we will see that…
We propose a collective opinion formation model with a so-called confirmation bias. The confirmation bias is a psychological effect with which, in the context of opinion formation, an individual in favor of an opinion is prone to…