Related papers: Ambiguity Rate of Hidden Markov Processes
State space models have long played an important role in signal processing. The Gaussian case can be treated algorithmically using the famous Kalman filter. Similarly since the 1970s there has been extensive application of Hidden Markov…
This paper considers the asymptotic properties of the recursive maximum likelihood estimation in hidden Markov models. The paper is focused on the asymptotic behavior of the log-likelihood function and on the point-convergence and…
We consider an energy storage problem involving a wind farm with a forecasted power output, a stochastic load, an energy storage device, and a connection to the larger power grid with stochastic prices. Electricity prices and wind power…
Machine learning algorithms in high-dimensional settings are highly susceptible to the influence of even a small fraction of structured outliers, making robust optimization techniques essential. In particular, within the…
Traditional machine learning methods usually minimize a simple loss function to learn a predictive model, and then use a complex performance measure to measure the prediction performance. However, minimizing a simple loss function cannot…
We study the problem of estimating the mode and maximum of an unknown regression function in the presence of noise. We adopt the Bayesian approach by using tensor-product B-splines and endowing the coefficients with Gaussian priors. In the…
Unbiased assessment of the predictivity of models learnt by supervised machine-learning methods requires knowledge of the learned function over a reserved test set (not used by the learning algorithm). The quality of the assessment depends,…
Gaussian processes are a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty and for sequential decision-making but are limited by the requirement of solving linear systems. In general, this has a cubic cost in dataset size and is sensitive to…
The paper studies information-theoretic opacity, an information-flow privacy property, in a setting involving two agents: A planning agent who controls a stochastic system and an observer who partially observes the system states. The goal…
This paper presents new sufficient conditions for convergence and asymptotic or exponential stability of a stochastic discrete-time system, under which the constructed Lyapunov function always decreases in expectation along the system's…
A recent result presented the expansion for the entropy rate of a Hidden Markov Process (HMP) as a power series in the noise variable $\eps$. The coefficients of the expansion around the noiseless ($\eps = 0$) limit were calculated up to…
In this paper, we consider contention resolution algorithms that are augmented with predictions about the network. We begin by studying the natural setup in which the algorithm is provided a distribution defined over the possible network…
Stochastic processes offer a flexible mathematical formalism to model and reason about systems. Most analysis tools, however, start from the premises that models are fully specified, so that any parameters controlling the system's dynamics…
We propose a computational framework to quantify (measure) and to optimize the reliability of complex systems. The approach uses a graph representation of the system that is subject to random failures of its components (nodes and edges).…
We consider parameter estimation in finite hidden state space Markov models with time-dependent inhomogeneous noise, where the inhomogeneity vanishes sufficiently fast. Based on the concept of asymptotic mean stationary processes we prove…
Free-energy-based adaptive biasing methods, such as Metadynamics, the Adaptive Biasing Force (ABF) and their variants, are enhanced sampling algorithms widely used in molecular simulations. Although their efficiency has been empirically…
Complex systems are characterized by a huge number of degrees of freedom often interacting in a non-linear manner. In many cases macroscopic states, however, can be characterized by a small number of order parameters that obey stochastic…
Stochastic approximation algorithm is a useful technique which has been exploited successfully in probability theory and statistics for a long time. The step sizes used in stochastic approximation are generally taken to be deterministic and…
Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF), combined with EM, is commonly used as an algorithm for likelihood maximization in undirected graphical models. In this paper, we present two iterative algorithms that generalize upon IPF. The first one…
Statistical mechanics relies on the complete though probabilistic description of a system in terms of all the microscopic variables. Its object is to derive therefrom static and dynamic properties involving some reduced set of variables.…