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As we move away from the data, the predictive uncertainty should increase, since a great variety of explanations are consistent with the little available information. We introduce Distance-Aware Prior (DAP) calibration, a method to correct…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-19 Gianluca Detommaso , Alberto Gasparin , Andrew Wilson , Cedric Archambeau

This work leverages recent advances in probabilistic machine learning to discover conservation laws expressed by parametric linear equations. Such equations involve, but are not limited to, ordinary and partial differential,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-09-13 Maziar Raissi , George Em. Karniadakis

Objective prior distributions represent an important tool that allows one to have the advantages of using the Bayesian framework even when information about the parameters of a model is not available. The usual objective approaches work off…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-25 Fabrizio Leisen , Cristiano Villa , Stephen G. Walker

We propose a cautious Bayesian variable selection routine by investigating the sensitivity of a hierarchical model, where the regression coefficients are specified by spike and slab priors. We exploit the use of latent variables to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-20 Tathagata Basu , Matthias C. M. Troffaes , Jochen Einbeck

Contemporary machine learning methods will try to approach the Bayes error, as it is the lowest possible error any model can achieve. This paper postulates that any decision is composed of not one but two Bayesian decisions and that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-18 Stefan Jaeger

Generalized Bayes posterior distributions are formed by putting a fractional power on the likelihood before combining with the prior via Bayes's formula. This fractional power, which is often viewed as a remedy for potential model…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-12 Pei-Shien Wu , Ryan Martin

Training data attribution (TDA) techniques find influential training data for the model's prediction on the test data of interest. They approximate the impact of down- or up-weighting a particular training sample. While conceptually useful,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-01 Elisa Nguyen , Minjoon Seo , Seong Joon Oh

Motivated by the statistical evaluation of complex computer models, we deal with the issue of objective prior specification for the parameters of Gaussian processes. In particular, we derive the Jeffreys-rule, independence Jeffreys and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Rui Paulo

Bayesian models based on the Dirichlet process and other stick-breaking priors have been proposed as core ingredients for clustering, topic modeling, and other unsupervised learning tasks. However, due to the flexibility of these models,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-27 Ryan Giordano , Runjing Liu , Michael I. Jordan , Tamara Broderick

Gathering labeled data to train well-performing machine learning models is one of the critical challenges in many applications. Active learning aims at reducing the labeling costs by an efficient and effective allocation of costly labeling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-03 Daniel Kottke , Marek Herde , Christoph Sandrock , Denis Huseljic , Georg Krempl , Bernhard Sick

Datasets are rarely a realistic approximation of the target population. Say, prevalence is misrepresented, image quality is above clinical standards, etc. This mismatch is known as sampling bias. Sampling biases are a major hindrance for…

Gaussian processes retain the linear model either as a special case, or in the limit. We show how this relationship can be exploited when the data are at least partially linear. However from the perspective of the Bayesian posterior, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2008-07-13 Robert B. Gramacy , Herbert K. H. Lee

In this paper the problem of learning appropriate bias for an environment of related tasks is examined from a Bayesian perspective. The environment of related tasks is shown to be naturally modelled by the concept of an {\em objective}…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-15 Jonathan Baxter

This is an introduction to Bayesian inference with a focus on hierarchical models and hyper-parameters. We write primarily for an audience of Bayesian novices, but we hope to provide useful insights for seasoned veterans as well. Examples…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-05-26 Eric Thrane , Colm Talbot

We marshall the arguments for preferring Bayesian hypothesis testing and confidence sets to frequentist ones. We define admissible solutions to inference problems, noting that Bayesian solutions are admissible. We give seven weaker…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-22 Roger Sewell

Training neural networks on randomly generated artificial datasets yields Bayesian models that capture the prior defined by the dataset-generating distribution. Prior-data Fitted Networks (PFNs) are a class of methods designed to leverage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-02 Samuel Müller , Arik Reuter , Noah Hollmann , David Rügamer , Frank Hutter

Despite rapid recent advances in quantum machine learning, the field is in many ways stuck. Existing approaches can exhibit serious limitations, and we still lack learning frameworks that are simple, interpretable, scalable, and naturally…

Deep Learning requires large amounts of data to train models that work well. In data-deficient settings, performance can be degraded. We investigate which Deep Learning methods benefit training models in a data-deficient setting, by…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-06-11 Robert-Jan Bruintjes , Attila Lengyel , Osman Semih Kayhan , Davide Zambrano , Nergis Tömen , Hadi Jamali-Rad , Jan van Gemert

Bayesian optimization is a powerful paradigm to optimize black-box functions based on scarce and noisy data. Its data efficiency can be further improved by transfer learning from related tasks. While recent transfer models meta-learn a…

Humans can learn new concepts from a small number of examples by drawing on their inductive biases. These inductive biases have previously been captured by using Bayesian models defined over symbolic hypothesis spaces. Is it possible to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-13 Ioana Marinescu , R. Thomas McCoy , Thomas L. Griffiths