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A plethora of static and dynamic models exist to forecast Value-at-Risk and other quantile-related metrics used in financial risk management. Industry practice tends to favour simpler, static models such as historical simulation or its…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-11 Carol Alexander , Yang Han

In this paper we propose the notion of continuous-time dynamic spectral risk-measure (DSR). Adopting a Poisson random measure setting, we define this class of dynamic coherent risk-measures in terms of certain backward stochastic…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-04-19 Dilip Madan , Martijn Pistorius , Mitja Stadje

The rapid growth of crypto markets has opened new opportunities for investors, but at the same time exposed them to high volatility. To address the challenge of managing dynamic portfolios in such an environment, this paper presents a…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-29 Antonino Castelli , Paolo Giudici , Alessandro Piergallini

Factor Analysis is a popular method for modeling dependence in multivariate data. However, determining the number of factors and obtaining a sparse orientation of the loadings are still major challenges. In this paper, we propose a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-27 Henrique Bolfarine , Carlos M. Carvalho , Hedibert F. Lopes , Jared S. Murray

Portfolio optimization approaches inevitably rely on multivariate modeling of markets and the economy. In this paper, we address three sources of error related to the modeling of these complex systems: 1. oversimplifying hypothesis; 2.…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-03-30 Pier Francesco Procacci , Tomaso Aste

Building upon factor decomposition to overcome the curse of dimensionality inherent in multivariate volatility processes, we develop a factor model-based multivariate stochastic volatility (fMSV) framework. We propose a two-stage estimation…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-24 Benjamin Poignard , Manabu Asai

Portfolio optimization requires dynamic allocation of funds by balancing the risk and return tradeoff under dynamic market conditions. With the recent advancements in AI, Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) has gained prominence in providing…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-05-08 Arishi Orra , Aryan Bhambu , Himanshu Choudhary , Manoj Thakur , Selvaraju Natarajan

Portfolio allocation is crucial for investment companies. However, getting the best strategy in a complex and dynamic stock market is challenging. In this paper, we propose a novel Adaptive Deep Deterministic Reinforcement Learning scheme…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-07-03 Xinyi Li , Yinchuan Li , Yuancheng Zhan , Xiao-Yang Liu

Dynamic discrete choice models are widely employed to answer substantive and policy questions in settings where individuals' current choices have future implications. However, estimation of these models is often computationally intensive…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-11 Ebrahim Barzegary , Hema Yoganarasimhan

This paper introduces a dynamic minimum variance portfolio (MVP) model using nonlinear volatility dynamic models, based on high-frequency financial data. Specifically, we impose an autoregressive dynamic structure on MVP processes, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-23 Donggyu Kim , Minseog Oh

A new framework for portfolio diversification is introduced which goes beyond the classical mean-variance approach and portfolio allocation strategies such as risk parity. It is based on a novel concept called portfolio dimensionality that…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2019-09-23 Mathias Barkhagen , Brian Fleming , Sergio Garcia Quiles , Jacek Gondzio , Joerg Kalcsics , Jens Kroeske , Sotirios Sabanis , Arne Staal

When we implement a portfolio selection methodology under a mean-risk formulation, it is essential to correctly model investors' risk aversion which may be time-dependent, or even state-dependent during the investment procedure. In this…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-08-04 Xiangyu Cui , Xun Li , Duan Li , Yun Shi

Large-scale multiple testing under static factor models is widely used to detect sparse signals in high-dimensional data. However, static factor models are arguably too stringent because they ignore serial correlation, which seriously…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-04 Xinxin Yang , Lilun Du

Factor analysis is a statistical technique employed to evaluate how observed variables correlate through common factors and unique variables. While it is often used to analyze price movement in the unstable stock market, it does not always…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-08-13 Angela Gu , Patrick Zeng

This work focuses on the dynamic hedging of financial derivatives, where a reinforcement learning algorithm is designed to minimize the variance of the delta hedging process. In contrast to previous research in this area, we apply…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-06-21 Cong Zheng , Jiafa He , Can Yang

A Bayesian procedure is developed for multivariate stochastic volatility, using state space models. An autoregressive model for the log-returns is employed. We generalize the inverted Wishart distribution to allow for different correlation…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 K. Triantafyllopoulos

Applying a network analysis to stock return correlations, we study the dynamical properties of the network and how they correlate with the market return, finding meaningful variables that partially capture the complex dynamical processes of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-08-22 Ixandra Achitouv

The patterns of different financial data sources vary substantially, and accordingly, investors exhibit heterogeneous cognition behavior in information processing. To capture different patterns, we propose a novel approach called the…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Ruize Gao , Mei Yang , Yu Wang , Shaoze Cui

Income and risk coexist, yet investors are often so focused on chasing high returns that they overlook the potential risks that can lead to high losses. Therefore, risk forecasting and risk control is the cornerstone of investment. To…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-14 Xinyuan Song

Multivariate probability density functions of returns are constructed in order to model the empirical behavior of returns in a financial time series. They describe the well-established deviations from the Gaussian random walk, such as an…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-08-23 E. Alessio , V. Frappietro , M. I. Krivoruchenko , L. J. Streckert