Related papers: School reopening should be guided by solid evidenc…

COVID-19 has spread all over the world, having an enormous effect on our daily life and work. In response to the epidemic, a lot of important decisions need to be taken to save communities and economies worldwide. Data clearly plays a vital…

We use data from 107 Italian provinces to characterize and compare mortality patterns in the first two COVID-19 epidemic waves, which occurred prior to the introduction of vaccines. We also associate these patterns with mobility, timing of…

In light of the continuing emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccines, we create a simulation framework for exploring possible infection trajectories under various scenarios. The situations of primary interest involve the interaction…

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the behavioral response to reported case numbers changed drastically over time. While a few dozen cases were enough to trigger government-induced and voluntary contact reduction in early 2020, less than a year…

The COVID-19 crisis has shown that we can only prevent the risk of mass contagion through timely, large-scale, coordinated, and decisive actions. However, frequently the models used by experts [from whom decision-makers get their main…

We investigate patterns of COVID-19 mortality across 20 Italian regions and their association with mobility, positivity, and socio-demographic, infrastructural and environmental covariates. Notwithstanding limitations in accuracy and…

The number of new infections per day is a key quantity for effective epidemic management. It can be estimated relatively directly by testing of random population samples. Without such direct epidemiological measurement, other approaches are…

The daily fluctuations in the released number of Covid-19 cases played a big role both at the beginning and in the most critical weeks of the outbreak, when local authorities in Italy had to decide whether to impose a lockdown and at which…

During the COVID-19 pandemic, safely implementing in-person indoor instruction was a high priority for universities nationwide. To support this effort at the University, we developed a mathematical model for estimating the risk of…

By the peak of COVID-19 restrictions on April 8, 2020, up to 1.5 billion students across 188 countries were by the suspension of physical attendance in schools. Schools were among the first services to reopen as vaccination campaigns…

Background: While increasing the ventilation rate is an important measure to remove inhalable virus-laden respiratory particles and lower the risk of infection, direct validation in schools with population-based studies is far from…

It's been controversial whether re-opening school will facilitate viral spread among household communities with mitigation strategies such as mask-wearing in place. In this work, we propose an epidemiological model that explores the viral…

Accurate modeling of lockdown effects on SARS-CoV-2 epidemic evolution is a key issue in order e.g. to inform health-care decisions on emergency management. The compartmental and spatial models so far proposed use parametric descriptions of…

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in response to the COVID-19 pandemic necessitated a trade-off between the health impacts of viral spread and the social and economic costs of restrictions. We conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of…

Initially emerged in the Chinese city Wuhan and subsequently spread almost worldwide causing a pandemic, the SARS-CoV-2 virus follows reasonably well the SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) epidemic model on contact networks in the…

In a previous article [1] we have described the temporal evolution of the Sars- Cov-2 in Italy in the time window February 24-April 1. As we can see in [1] a generalized logistic equation captures both the peaks of the total infected and…

In 2020, countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions to contrast the spread of the virus and its impact on their healthcare systems and economies. Using Italian data at different…

To curb the initial spread of SARS-CoV-2, many countries relied on nation-wide implementation of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures, resulting in substantial socio-economic impacts. Potentially, subnational implementations might have…

Understanding Covid-19 lethality and its variation from country to country is essential for supporting governments in the choice of appropriate strategies. Adopting correct indicators to monitor the lethality of the infection in the course…

During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have tried to keep their territories safe by isolating themselves from others, limiting non-essential travel and imposing mandatory quarantines for travelers. While large-scale quarantine has been…