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The Markov assumption (MA) is fundamental to the empirical validity of reinforcement learning. In this paper, we propose a novel Forward-Backward Learning procedure to test MA in sequential decision making. The proposed test does not assume…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-06 Chengchun Shi , Runzhe Wan , Rui Song , Wenbin Lu , Ling Leng

We present a new statistical test to detect that a presented state of a reversible Markov chain was not chosen from a stationary distribution. In particular, given a value function for the states of the Markov chain, we would like to…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-08 Maria Chikina , Alan Frieze , Wesley Pegden

We prove that moderate deviations for empirical measures for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chains hold under the assumption of uniform convergence of transition probability matrices for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chains in Ces\`aro…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-16 Mingzhou Xu , Kun Cheng

We establish a new Bernstein-type deviation inequality for general (non-reversible) discrete-time Markov chains via an elementary approach. More robust than existing works in the literature, our result only requires the Markov chain to…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-07 De Huang , Xiangyuan Li

We study an irreducible Markov chain on the category of finite abelian $p$-groups, whose stationary measure is the Cohen-Lenstra distribution. This Markov chain arises when one studies the cokernel of a random matrix $M$, after conditioning…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-14 Nikita Lvov

This paper presents an elementary proof of stochastic stability of a discrete-time reversible Markov chain starting from a Foster-Lyapunov drift condition. Besides its relative simplicity, there are two salient features of the proof: (i) it…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-05-19 Amirhossein Taghvaei , Prashant G. Mehta

Motivated by applications in telecommunications, computer scienceand physics, we consider a discrete-time Markov process withrestart. At each step the process eitherwith a positive probability restarts from a given distribution, orwith the…

Performance · Computer Science 2017-03-13 Konstantin Avrachenkov , Alexey Piunovskiy , Yi Zhang

The embedding problem for Markov chains is a famous problem in probability theory and only partial results are available up till now. In this paper, we propose a variant of the embedding problem called the reversible embedding problem which…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-12 Chen Jia

In probability theory, equalities are much less than inequalities. In this paper, we find a series of equalities which characterize the symmetry of the forming times of a family of similar cycles for discrete-time and continuous-time Markov…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-21 Chen Jia , Daquan Jiang , Minping Qian

In this letter we announce rigorous results that elucidate the relation between metastable states and low-lying eigenvalues in Markov chains in a much more general setting and with considerable greater precision as was so far available.…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-10-31 A. Bovier , M. Eckhoff , V. Gayrard , M. Klein

We study the problem of learning the transition matrices of a set of Markov chains from a single stream of observations on each chain. We assume that the Markov chains are ergodic but otherwise unknown. The learner can sample Markov chains…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-14 Mohammad Sadegh Talebi , Odalric-Ambrym Maillard

We establish non-asymptotic error bounds for the classical Maximal Likelihood Estimation of the transition matrix of a given Markov chain. Meanwhile, in the reversible case, we propose a new reversibility-preserving online Symmetric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-07 De Huang , Xiangyuan Li

This paper aims to provide differential privacy (DP) guarantees for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. In a first part, we establish DP guarantees on samples output by MCMC algorithms as well as Monte Carlo estimators associated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-04 Andrea Bertazzi , Tim Johnston , Gareth O. Roberts , Alain Durmus

We consider a unified framework of sequential change-point detection and hypothesis testing modeled by means of hidden Markov chains. One observes a sequence of random variables whose distributions are functionals of a hidden Markov chain.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-12-13 Savas Dayanik , Kazutoshi Yamazaki

Labelled Markov chains (LMCs) are widely used in probabilistic verification, speech recognition, computational biology, and many other fields. Checking two LMCs for equivalence is a classical problem subject to extensive studies, while the…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2014-05-16 Taolue Chen , Stefan Kiefer

We consider metrics which are preserved under a $p$-Wasserstein transport map, up to a possible contraction. In the case $p=1$ this corresponds to a metric which is uniformly curved in the sense of coarse Ricci curvature. We investigate the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-12-08 Florian Völlering

Testing between hypotheses, when independent sampling is possible, is a well developed subject. In this paper, we propose hypothesis tests that are applicable when the samples are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo. These tests are…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-08-14 Benjamin M. Gyori , Daniel Paulin

Measure-valued Markov chains have raised interest in Bayesian nonparametrics since the seminal paper by (Math. Proc. Cambridge Philos. Soc. 105 (1989) 579--585) where a Markov chain having the law of the Dirichlet process as unique…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-27 Stefano Favaro , Alessandra Guglielmi , Stephen G. Walker

In any Markov chain with finite state space the distribution of transition records always belongs to the exponential family. This observation is used to prove a fluctuation theorem, and to show that the dynamical entropy of a stationary…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Jan Naudts , Erik Van der Straeten

Let $P$ be the transition matrix of a finite, irreducible and reversible Markov chain. We say the continuous time Markov chain $X$ has transition matrix $P$ and speed $\lambda$ if it jumps at rate $\lambda$ according to the matrix $P$. Fix…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-26 Louigi Addario-Berry , Roberto I. Oliveira , Yuval Peres , Perla Sousi