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This paper presents a novel semiparametric method to study the effects of extreme events on binary outcomes and subsequently forecast future outcomes. Our approach, based on Bayes' theorem and regularly varying (RV) functions, facilitates a…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-25 Laura Liu , Yulong Wang

Big data can easily be contaminated by outliers or contain variables with heavy-tailed distributions, which makes many conventional methods inadequate. To address this challenge, we propose the adaptive Huber regression for robust…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-11 Qiang Sun , Wenxin Zhou , Jianqing Fan

We consider multivariate extreme value statistics for independent but nonidentically distributed random vectors. In particular, the data may have varying tail copulas and also heteroscedastic marginal distributions. Assuming smoothly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-14 John H. J. Einmahl , Chen Zhou

The concept of univariate Range Value-at-Risk, presented by Cont et al. (2010), is extended in the multidimensional setting. Traditional risk measures are not well suited when dealing with heavy-tail distributions and infinite tail…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-05-27 Roba Bairakdar , Lu Cao , Melina Mailhot

Inference over tails is usually performed by fitting an appropriate limiting distribution over observations that exceed a fixed threshold. However, the choice of such threshold is critical and can affect the inferential results. Extreme…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-02-26 Chiara Lattanzi , Manuele Leonelli

This paper is devoted to robust estimation based on dual divergences estimators for parametric models in the framework of right censored data. We give limit laws of the proposed estimators and examine their asymptotic properties through a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-06-15 Mohamed Cherfi

Win statistics, including the win ratio, net benefit, and win odds, summarize treatment effects on hierarchical composite endpoints by sequentially comparing patient pairs on component outcomes ordered by clinical importance, proceeding to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-27 Xi Fang , Fan Li

In various applications of heavy-tail modelling, the assumed Pareto behavior is tempered ultimately in the range of the largest data. In insurance applications, claim payments are influenced by claim management and claims may for instance…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-29 Jose Carlos Araujo Acuna , Hansjoerg Albrecher , Jan Beirlant

We present a method for estimating the edge of a two-dimensional bounded set, given a finite random set of points drawn from the interior. The estimator is based both on a Parzen-Rosenblatt kernel and extreme values of point processes. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-03-31 Stéphane Girard , Pierre Jacob

The task of analyzing extreme events with censoring effects is considered under a framework allowing for random covariate information. A wide class of estimators that can be cast as product-limit integrals is considered, for when the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-14 Martin Bladt , Christoffer Øhlenschlæger

In survival analysis, the estimation of the proportion of subjects who will never experience the event of interest, termed the cure rate, has received considerable attention recently. Its estimation can be a particularly difficult task when…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-02 Jan Beirlant , Martin Bladt , Ingrid Van Keilegom

Random forests are powerful non-parametric regression method but are severely limited in their usage in the presence of randomly censored observations, and naively applied can exhibit poor predictive performance due to the incurred biases.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-12 Alexander Hanbo Li , Jelena Bradic

Censored quantile regression has emerged as a prominent alternative to classical Cox's proportional hazards model or accelerated failure time model in both theoretical and applied statistics. While quantile regression has been extensively…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-27 Taehwa Choi , Seohyeon Park , Hunyong Cho , Sangbum Choi

Random forests are powerful non-parametric regression method but are severely limited in their usage in the presence of randomly censored observations, and naively applied can exhibit poor predictive performance due to the incurred biases.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-13 Alexander Hanbo Li , Jelena Bradic

Let $ (T_i)_i$ be a sequence of independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables (r.v.) of interest distributed as $ T$ and $(X_i)_i$ be a corresponding vector of covariates taking values on $ \mathbb{R}^d$. In censorship…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-29 Bouhadjera Feriel , Ould Saïd , Mohamed Remita

A hybrid censoring scheme is a mixture of Type-I and Type-II censoring schemes. We study the estimation of parameters of weighted exponential distribution based on Type-II hybrid censored data. By applying EM algorithm, maximum likelihood…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-02 Akram Kohansal , Saeid Rezakhah

Conventional methods for extreme event estimation rely on well-chosen parametric models asymptotically justified from extreme value theory (EVT). These methods, while powerful and theoretically grounded, could however encounter a difficult…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-05 Yuanlu Bai , Henry Lam , Xinyu Zhang

Sparse model estimation is a topic of high importance in modern data analysis due to the increasing availability of data sets with a large number of variables. Another common problem in applied statistics is the presence of outliers in the…

Applications · Statistics 2025-02-03 Andreas Alfons , Christophe Croux , Sarah Gelper

Extremile regression, as a least squares analog of quantile regression, is potentially useful tool for modeling and understanding the extreme tails of a distribution. However, existing extremile regression methods, as nonparametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-03 Rong Jiang , Keming Yu , Jiangfeng Wang

We give an overview of several aspects arising in the statistical analysis of extreme risks with actuarial applications in view. In particular it is demonstrated that empirical process theory is a very powerful tool, both for the asymptotic…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-19 Holger Drees
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