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Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an important component of molecular property prediction, particularly for drug discovery applications where model predictions direct experimental design and where unanticipated imprecision wastes valuable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-21 Lior Hirschfeld , Kyle Swanson , Kevin Yang , Regina Barzilay , Connor W. Coley

Motivation: Recent work has demonstrated the feasibility of using non-numerical, qualitative data to parameterize mathematical models. However, uncertainty quantification (UQ) of such parameterized models has remained challenging because of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-04 Eshan D. Mitra , William S. Hlavacek

In this paper, we develop a machine learning-based Bayesian approach to inversely quantify and reduce the uncertainties of the two-fluid model-based multiphase computational fluid dynamics (MCFD) for bubbly flow simulations. The proposed…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2020-10-22 Yang Liu , Dewei Wang , Xiaodong Sun , Yang Liu , Nam Dinh , Rui Hu

We describe a computational framework linking Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods for continuum problems depending on random parameters with Equation-Free (EF) methods for performing continuum deterministic numerics by acting directly…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Yu Zou , Ioannis G. Kevrekidis

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) plays a pivotal role in reduction of uncertainties during both optimization and decision making processes. It can be applied to solve a variety of real-world applications in science and engineering. Bayesian…

We present a "module-based hybrid" Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) framework for general nonlinear multi-physics simulation. The proposed methodology, introduced in [\hyperlink{ref1}{1}], supports the independent development of each…

Computational Physics · Physics 2014-10-21 Akshay Mittal , Xiao Chen , Charles Tong , Gianluca Iaccarino

With the increased use of data-driven approaches and machine learning-based methods in material science, the importance of reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the predicted variables for informed decision-making cannot be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-15 Longze Li , Jiang Chang , Aleksandar Vakanski , Yachun Wang , Tiankai Yao , Min Xian

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in scientific machine learning is increasingly critical as neural networks are widely adopted to tackle complex problems across diverse scientific disciplines. For physics-informed neural networks (PINNs), a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-20 Frank Shih , Zhenghao Jiang , Faming Liang

This paper introduces a novel hierarchical Bayesian model specifically designed to address challenges in Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (IUQ) for time-dependent problems in nuclear Thermal Hydraulics (TH) systems. The unique…

Applications · Statistics 2024-03-27 Chen Wang

This paper outlines a methodology for Bayesian multimodel uncertainty quantification (UQ) and propagation and presents an investigation into the effect of prior probabilities on the resulting uncertainties. The UQ methodology is adapted…

Computation · Statistics 2018-07-04 Jiaxin Zhang , Michael D. Shields

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) has increasing importance in building robust high-performance and generalizable materials property prediction models. It can also be used in active learning to train better models by focusing on getting new…

Materials Science · Physics 2022-11-14 Daniel Varivoda , Rongzhi Dong , Sadman Sadeed Omee , Jianjun Hu

This paper introduces CUQIpy, a versatile open-source Python package for computational uncertainty quantification (UQ) in inverse problems, presented as Part I of a two-part series. CUQIpy employs a Bayesian framework, integrating prior…

Machine learning methods for the construction of data-driven reduced order model models are used in an increasing variety of engineering domains, especially as a supplement to expensive computational fluid dynamics for design problems. An…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-28 Stephen Guth , Alireza Mojahed , Themistoklis P. Sapsis

Biased sampling in molecular dynamics simulations overcomes timescale limitations and delivers free-energy landscapes, essential to understand complex atomistic phenomena. However, when applied across diverse systems and processes, biasing…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-01-14 Eline K. Kempkes , Alberto Pérez de Alba Ortíz

Predicting fuel assembly bow in pressurized water reactors requires solving tightly coupled fluid-structure interaction problems, whose direct simulations can be computationally prohibitive, making large-scale uncertainty quantification…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-27 Ali Abboud , Josselin Garnier , Bertrand Leturcq , Stanislas de Lambert

The use of high-dimensional regression techniques from machine learning has significantly improved the quantitative accuracy of interatomic potentials. Atomic simulations can now plausibly target quantitative predictions in a variety of…

Materials Science · Physics 2025-03-04 Danny Perez , Aparna P. A. Subramanyam , Ivan Maliyov , Thomas D. Swinburne

As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical for ensuring the safety and reliability of these models. Traditional UQ methods rely on specifying a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-14 Abhineet Agarwal , Michael Xiao , Rebecca Barter , Omer Ronen , Boyu Fan , Bin Yu

Airfoil icing is a severe safety hazard in aviation and causes power losses on wind turbines. The precise shape of the ice formation is subject to large uncertainties, so uncertainty quantification (UQ) is needed for a reliable prediction…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2023-07-21 Jakob Dürrwächter , Andrea Beck , Claus-Dieter Munz

Effective Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) represents a key aspect for reliable deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) in automated decision-making and beyond. Yet, for LLM generation with multiple choice structure, the state-of-the-art…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Ramzi Dakhmouche , Adrien Letellier , Hossein Gorji

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety (WPNCS) proposed a benchmark exercise to assess the performance of current nuclear data adjustment techniques applied to nonlinear…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2026-02-18 Christopher Brady , Xu Wu