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Accurately quantifying tail risks-rare but high-impact events such as financial crashes or extreme weather-is a central challenge in risk management, with serially dependent data. We develop a Bayesian framework based on the Generalized…
When modeling multivariate phenomena, properly capturing the joint extremal behavior is often one of the many concerns. Archimax copulas appear as successful candidates in case of asymptotic dependence. In this paper, the class of Archimax…
Copulas are popular as models for multivariate dependence because they allow the marginal densities and the joint dependence to be modeled separately. However, they usually require that the transformation from uniform marginals to the…
In the study of heavy tail data, several models have been introduced. If the interest is in the tail of the distribution, block maxima or excess over thresholds are the typical approaches, wasting relevant information in the bulk of the…
Cylindrical data frequently arise across various scientific disciplines, including meteorology (e.g., wind direction and speed), oceanography (e.g., marine current direction and speed or wave heights), ecology (e.g., telemetry), and…
Dependence modeling of multivariate count data has garnered significant attention in recent years. Multivariate elliptical copulas are typically preferred in statistical literature to analyze dependence between repeated measurements of…
Max-stable processes have proved to be useful for the statistical modelling of spatial extremes. Several representations of max-stable random fields have been proposed in the literature. For statistical inference it is often assumed that…
Regular vine sequences permit the organisation of variables in a random vector along a sequence of trees. Regular vine models have become greatly popular in dependence modelling as a way to combine arbitrary bivariate copulas into…
Models for extreme values accommodating non-stationarity have been amply studied and evaluated from a parametric perspective. Whilst these models are flexible, in the sense that many parametrizations can be explored, they assume an…
We propose a Bayesian approach using improper priors for hierarchical linear mixed models with flexible random effects and residual error distributions. The error distribution is modelled using scale mixtures of normals, which can capture…
The family of location and scale mixtures of Gaussians has the ability to generate a number of flexible distributional forms. It nests as particular cases several important asymmetric distributions like the Generalised Hyperbolic…
The paper focuses on a class of light-tailed multivariate probability distributions. These are obtained via a transformation of the margins from a heavy-tailed original distribution. This class was introduced in Balkema et al. (J.…
The Multivariate Extreme Value distributions have shown their usefulness in environmental studies, financial and insurance mathematics. The Logistic or Gumbel-Hougaard distribution is one of the oldest multivariate extreme value models and…
The key to successful statistical analysis of bivariate extreme events lies in flexible modelling of the tail dependence relationship between the two variables. In the extreme value theory literature, various techniques are available to…
Recently, the concept of tail dependence has been discussed in financial applications related to market or credit risk. The multivariate extreme value theory is a proper tool to measure and model dependence, for example, of large loss…
Tail dependence plays an essential role in the characterization of joint extreme events in multivariate data. However, most standard tail dependence parameters assume continuous margins. This note presents a form of tail dependence suitable…
Multivariate extreme value theory is concerned with modeling the joint tail behavior of several random variables. Existing work mostly focuses on asymptotic dependence, where the probability of observing a large value in one of the…
We study the dependence structure of market states by estimating empirical pairwise copulas of daily stock returns. We consider both original returns, which exhibit time-varying trends and volatilities, as well as locally normalized ones,…
This paper introduces a copula-based model for independent but non-identically distributed data with heteroscedastic extremes marginal and changing tail dependence structures. We establish a unified framework for inference by proving the…
A notion of tail dependence based on operator regular variation is introduced for copulas, and the standard tail dependence used in the copula literature is included as a special case. The non-standard tail dependence with marginal power…