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Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

In recent years, large language models (LLMs) have become increasingly prevalent, offering remarkable text generation capabilities. However, a pressing challenge is their tendency to make confidently wrong predictions, highlighting the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-06 Xiang Gao , Jiaxin Zhang , Lalla Mouatadid , Kamalika Das

Sparsity promoting regularization is an important technique for signal reconstruction and several other ill-posed problems. Theoretical investigation typically bases on the assumption that the unknown solution has a sparse representation…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2013-11-11 Jens Flemming , Markus Hegland

Sample reuse techniques have significantly reduced the numerical complexity of probabilistic robustness analysis. Existing results show that for a nested collection of hyper-spheres the complexity of the problem of performing $N$ equivalent…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2008-05-13 Xinjia Chen , Jorge L. Aravena , Kemin Zhou

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential for creating trustworthy machine learning models. Recent years have seen a steep rise in UQ methods that can flag suspicious examples, however, it is often unclear what exactly these methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Hao Sun , Boris van Breugel , Jonathan Crabbe , Nabeel Seedat , Mihaela van der Schaar

The attempt to solve inverse scattering problems often leads to optimization and sampling problems that require handling moderate to large amounts of partial differential equations acting as constraints. We focus here on determining…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-04-09 Carolina Abugattas , Ana Carpio , Elena Cebrián , Gerardo Oleaga

Machine learning methods are increasingly widely used in high-risk settings such as healthcare, transportation, and finance. In these settings, it is important that a model produces calibrated uncertainty to reflect its own confidence and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-09-09 Sophia Sun

For a time-independent potential $q\in L^\infty$, consider the source-to-solution operator that maps a source $f$ to the solution $u=u(t,x)$ of $(\Box+q)u=f$ in Euclidean space with an obstacle, where we impose on $u$ vanishing Cauchy data…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2026-02-04 Leonard Busch , Matti Lassas , Lauri Oksanen , Mikko Salo

Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (IUQ) method has been widely used to quantify the uncertainty of Physical Model Parameters (PMPs) in nuclear Thermal Hydraulics (TH) systems. This paper introduces a novel hierarchical Bayesian model which…

Computation · Statistics 2024-03-27 Chen Wang , Xu Wu , Tomasz Kozlowski

We study the problem of recovering an unknown compactly-supported multivariate function from samples of its Fourier transform that are acquired nonuniformly, i.e. not necessarily on a uniform Cartesian grid. Reconstruction problems of this…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-05-04 Ben Adcock , Milana Gataric , José Luis Romero

The advent of fabrication techniques such as additive manufacturing has focused attention on the considerable variability of material response due to defects and other microstructural aspects. This variability motivates the development of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-06-26 Francesco Rizzi , Mohammad Khalil , Reese E. Jones , Jeremy A. Templeton , Jakob T. Ostien , Brad L. Boyce

This paper defines a novel Bayesian inverse problem to infer an infinite-dimensional uncertain operator appearing in a differential equation, whose action on an observable state variable affects its dynamics. Inference is made tractable by…

Applications · Statistics 2022-07-07 Teresa Portone , Robert D. Moser

In linear inverse problems, we have data derived from a noisy linear transformation of some unknown parameters, and we wish to estimate these unknowns from the data. Separable inverse problems are a powerful generalization in which the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-06-12 Paul Shearer , Anna C. Gilbert

We present a rigorous mathematical solution to photometric redshift estimation and the more general inversion problem. The challenge we address is to meaningfully constrain unknown properties of astronomical sources based on given…

Astrophysics · Physics 2011-02-11 Tamas Budavari

Despite the popularity of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), the problem of uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CNN has been largely overlooked. Lack of efficient UQ tools severely limits the application of CNN in certain areas, such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Hongfei Du , Emre Barut , Fang Jin

Radiotherapy planning naturally leads to a multi-criteria optimization problem which is subject to different sources of uncertainty. In order to find the desired treatment plan, a decision maker must balance these objectives as well as the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-27 Jan Schröeder , Yair Censor , Philipp Süss , Karl-Heinz Küfer

We develop a scalable algorithmic framework for sparse convex quantile regression (SCQR), addressing key computational challenges in the literature. Enhancing the classical CQR model, we introduce L2-norm regularization and an…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-03 Xiaoyu Luo , Chuanhou Gao

We consider the Bayesian approach to linear inverse problems when the underlying operator depends on an unknown parameter. Allowing for finite dimensional as well as infinite dimensional parameters, the theory covers several models with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-09-05 Mathias Trabs

We provide a complete framework for performing infinite-dimensional Bayesian inference and uncertainty quantification for image reconstruction with Poisson data. In particular, we address the following issues to make the Bayesian framework…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-10-22 Qingping Zhou , Tengchao Yu , Xiaoqun Zhang , Jinglai Li

This paper analyzes hierarchical Bayesian inverse problems using techniques from high-dimensional statistics. Our analysis leverages a property of hierarchical Bayesian regularizers that we call approximate decomposability to obtain…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-01-09 Daniel Sanz-Alonso , Nathan Waniorek