English
Related papers

Related papers: A Bayesian Gaussian Process for Estimating a Causa…

200 papers

Quantifying causal effects of exposures on outcomes, such as a treatment and a disease respectively, is a crucial issue in medical science for the administration of effective therapies. Importantly, any related causal analysis should…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-04 Federico Castelletti , Laura Ferrini

Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-02-06 Dave Higdon , Jordan D. McDonnell , Nicolas Schunck , Jason Sarich , Stefan M. Wild

The use of genetic variants as instrumental variables - an approach known as Mendelian randomization - is a popular epidemiological method for estimating the causal effect of an exposure (phenotype, biomarker, risk factor) on a disease or…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-21 Ioan Gabriel Bucur , Tom Claassen , Tom Heskes

Computer experiments involving both qualitative and quantitative (QQ) factors have attracted increasing attention. Gaussian process (GP) models have proven effective in this context by choosing specialized covariance functions for QQ…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-19 Linsui Deng , C. F. Jeff Wu

While causal models are becoming one of the mainstays of machine learning, the problem of uncertainty quantification in causal inference remains challenging. In this paper, we study the causal data fusion problem, where datasets pertaining…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-08 Siu Lun Chau , Jean-François Ton , Javier González , Yee Whye Teh , Dino Sejdinovic

Causal mediation analysis in cluster-randomized trials (CRTs) is essential for explaining how cluster-level interventions affect individual outcomes, yet it is complicated by interference, post-treatment confounding, and hierarchical…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-25 Yuki Ohnishi , Michael J. Daniels , Lei Yang , Fan Li

We develop a Gaussian-process mixture model for heterogeneous treatment effect estimation that leverages the use of transformed outcomes. The approach we will present attempts to improve point estimation and uncertainty quantification…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-19 Abbas Zaidi , Sayan Mukherjee

Causal inference relies on the untestable assumption of no unmeasured confounding. Sensitivity analysis can be used to quantify the impact of unmeasured confounding on causal estimates. Among sensitivity analysis methods proposed in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-12 Yushu Zou , Liangyuan Hu , Amanda Ricciuto , Mark Deneau , Kuan Liu

Earth observation (EO) by airborne and satellite remote sensing and in-situ observations play a fundamental role in monitoring our planet. In the last decade, machine learning and Gaussian processes (GPs) in particular has attained…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-03 Gustau Camps-Valls , Dino Sejdinovic , Jakob Runge , Markus Reichstein

We develop Bayesian nonparametric models for spatially indexed data of mixed type. Our work is motivated by challenges that occur in environmental epidemiology, where the usual presence of several confounding variables that exhibit complex…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-17 Georgios Papageorgiou , Sylvia Richardson , Nicky Best

Causal effect estimation from observational data is fundamental across various applications. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from dozens of specialized methods demands substantial manual effort and domain expertise. We present…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Vahid Balazadeh , Hamidreza Kamkari , Valentin Thomas , Benson Li , Junwei Ma , Jesse C. Cresswell , Rahul G. Krishnan

Public health researchers often estimate health effects of exposures (e.g., pollution, diet, lifestyle) that cannot be directly measured for study subjects. A common strategy in environmental epidemiology is to use a first-stage (exposure)…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-06-03 Adam A. Szpiro , Christopher J. Paciorek

Causal effect estimation is a critical task in statistical learning that aims to find the causal effect on subjects by identifying causal links between a number of predictor (or, explanatory) variables and the outcome of a treatment. In a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Tathagata Basu , Matthias C. M. Troffaes

In the event of a nuclear accident, or the detonation of a radiological dispersal device, quickly locating the source of the accident or blast is important for emergency response and environmental decontamination. At a specified time after…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-26 Christopher Edwards , Ralph C Smith

Standard causal inference characterizes treatment effect through averages, but the counterfactual distributions could be different in not only the central tendency but also spread and shape. To provide a comprehensive evaluation of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-04 Steven G. Xu , Shu Yang , Brian J. Reich

A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-24 Arthur Leroy , Pierre Latouche , Benjamin Guedj , Servane Gey

Learning directionality between variables is crucial yet challenging, especially for mechanistic relationships without a priori ordering assumptions. We propose a coefficient of asymmetry to quantify directional asymmetry using Shannon's…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-11 Soumik Purkayastha , Peter X. -K. Song

Causal inference with observational longitudinal data and time-varying exposures is often complicated by time-dependent confounding and attrition. The G-computation formula is one approach for estimating a causal effect in this setting. The…

Applications · Statistics 2020-10-14 Maria Josefsson , Michael J. Daniels

Gaussian processes (GPs) are Bayesian nonparametric generative models that provide interpretability of hyperparameters, admit closed-form expressions for training and inference, and are able to accurately represent uncertainty. To model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-21 Gonzalo Rios , Felipe Tobar

This paper presents a unified treatment of Gaussian process models that extends to data from the exponential dispersion family and to survival data. Our specific interest is in the analysis of data sets with predictors that have an a priori…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-06-17 Terrance Savitsky , Marina Vannucci , Naijun Sha