Related papers: Modeling the geospatial evolution of COVID-19 usin…

The COVID-19 pandemic represents the most significant public health disaster since the 1918 influenza pandemic. During pandemics such as COVID-19, timely and reliable spatio-temporal forecasting of epidemic dynamics is crucial. Deep…

An epidemiological model is developed for the spread of COVID-19 in South Africa. A variant of the classical compartmental SEIR model, called the SEIQRDP model, is used. As South Africa is still in the early phases of the global COVID-19…

Background: The analysis of the Sars-CoV-2 epidemic is of paramount importance to understand the dynamics of the coronavirus spread. This can help health and government authorities take the appropriate measures and implement suitable…

This study describes the dynamics of COVID-19 deaths and infections via a Monte Carlo approach. The analyses include death's data from USA, Brazil, Mexico, UK, India and Russia, which comprise the four countries with the highest number of…

We model and forecast the early evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil using Brazilian recent data from February 25, 2020 to March 30, 2020. This early period accounts for unawareness of the epidemiological characteristics of the…

Covid-19 infection, which spread to the whole world in December 2019 and is still active, caused more than 250 thousand deaths in the world today. Researches on this subject have been focused on analyzing the genetic structure of the virus,…

The new coronavirus known as COVID-19 is spread world-wide since December 2019. Without any vaccination or medicine, the means of controlling it are limited to quarantine and social distancing. Here we study the spatio-temporal propagation…

The COVID-19 (coronavirus) is an ongoing pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The virus was first identified in mid-December 2019 in the Hubei province of Wuhan, China and by now has spread…

Analysing and understanding the transmission and evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic is mandatory to be able to design the best social and medical policies, foresee their outcomes and deal with all the subsequent socio-economic effects. We…

With the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, various studies have focused on predicting the trajectory and risk factors of the virus and its variants. Building on previous work that addressed this problem using genetic and epidemiological…

We provide a predictive analysis of the spread of COVID-19, also known as SARS-CoV-2, using the dataset made publicly available online by the Johns Hopkins University. Our main objective is to provide predictions of the number of infected…

We propose a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a homogeneously mixing non constant population, and generalize it to a model where the parameters are given by piecewise constant functions. This allows us to…

Between the years 2020 to 2022, the world was hit by the pandemic of COVID-19 giving rise to an extremely grave situation. The global economy was badly hurt due to the consequences of various intervention strategies (like social distancing,…

The outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an ongoing pandemic affecting over 200 countries and regions. Inference about the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 can provide important insights into the speed of disease spread and…

During the COVID-19 pandemic, a major driver of new surges has been the emergence of new variants. When a new variant emerges in one or more countries, other nations monitor its spread in preparation for its potential arrival. The impact of…

Coronavirus COVID-19 spreads through the population mostly based on social contact. To gauge the potential for widespread contagion, to cope with associated uncertainty and to inform its mitigation, more accurate and robust modelling is…

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which causes the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has led to the deepest global health and economic crisis of the current century. This dramatic situation has forced the…

A multiple objective space-time forecasting approach is presented involving cyclical curve log-regression, and multivariate time series spatial residual correlation analysis. Specifically, the mean quadratic loss function is minimized in…

As of December 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has infected over 75 million people, making it the deadliest pandemic in modern history. This study develops a novel compartmental epidemiological model specific to the SARS-CoV-2 virus and…

In this work, we adapt the epidemiological SIR model to study the evolution of the dissemination of COVID-19 in Germany and Brazil (nationally, in the State of Paraiba, and in the City of Campina Grande). We prove the well posedness and the…