Related papers: Modelling the Second Covid-19 Wave in Mumbai

We investigate patterns of COVID-19 mortality across 20 Italian regions and their association with mobility, positivity, and socio-demographic, infrastructural and environmental covariates. Notwithstanding limitations in accuracy and…

The initial surge of the COVID-19 pandemic hit Guatemala on March 2020. On a country scale, the epidemic has undergone a fairly well-known and distinguishable initial phase, reaching its peak on mid July 2020. However, the detailed picture…

In late December 2019, a novel strand of Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) causing a severe, potentially fatal respiratory syndrome (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and is causing outbreaks in multiple world countries, soon…

This paper uses Covasim, an agent-based model (ABM) of COVID-19, to evaluate and scenarios of epidemic spread in New York State (USA), the UK, and the Novosibirsk region (Russia). Epidemiological parameters such as contagiousness (virus…

Epidemiological models with constant parameters may not capture satisfactory infection patterns in the presence of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical mitigation measures during a pandemic, since infectiousness is a function of time. In…

The phenomenological mathematical model of COVID-19 spreading is proposed for large countries with geographical differentiation of population density. According to the model COVID-19 spreading takes the form of several spatio-temporal waves…

Motivated by the rapid spread of COVID-19 all across the globe, we have performed simulations of a system dynamic epidemic spread model in different possible situations. The simulation, not only captures the model dynamic of the spread of…

The number of new infections per day is a key quantity for effective epidemic management. It can be estimated relatively directly by testing of random population samples. Without such direct epidemiological measurement, other approaches are…

To accurately predict the regional spread of Covid-19 infection, this study proposes a novel hybrid model which combines a Long short-term memory (LSTM) artificial recurrent neural network with dynamic behavioral models. Several factors and…

We study the increases of infections and deaths in Sweden caused by COVID-19 with several different models: Firstly an analytical susceptible-infected (SI) model and the standard susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. Then within the…

We study the reported data from the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in January - May 2020 in 119 countries. We observe that the time series of active cases in individual countries (the difference of the total number of confirmed infections and…

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a public health emergency of international concern affecting 201 countries and territories around the globe. As of April 4, 2020, it has caused a pandemic outbreak with more than 11,16,643…

The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed millions of lives worldwide and elicited heightened emotions. This study examines the expression of various emotions pertaining to COVID-19 in the United States and India as manifested in over 54 million…

Forecasting rainfall in tropical areas is challenging due to complex atmospheric behaviour, elevated humidity levels, and the common presence of convective rain events. In the Indian context, the difficulty is further exacerbated because of…

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been continuously affecting human lives and communities around the world in many ways, from cities…

COVID-19 is a new pandemic disease that is affecting almost every country with a negative impact on social life and economic activities. The number of infected and deceased patients continues to increase globally. Mathematical models can…

The long duration of the COVID-19 pandemic allowed for multiple bursts in the infection and death rates, the so-called epidemic waves. This complex behavior is no longer tractable by simple compartmental model and requires more…

COVID-19 has forced quarantine measures in several countries across the world. These measures have proven to be effective in significantly reducing the prevalence of the virus. To date, no effective treatment or vaccine is available. In the…

A fractional-order compartmental model was recently used to describe real data of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal [Chaos Solitons Fractals 144 (2021), Art. 110652]. Here, we modify that model in order to correct time…

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected travel behaviors and transportation system operations, and cities are grappling with what policies can be effective for a phased reopening shaped by social distancing. This edition of the white paper…