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Many chemical processes exhibit diverse timescale dynamics with a strong coupling between timescale sensitive variables. Model predictive control with a non-uniformly spaced optimisation horizon is an effective approach to multi-timescale…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-05-11 Ryan McCloy , Lai Wei , Jie Bao

Time series forecasting has applications across domains and industries, especially in healthcare, but the technical expertise required to analyze data, build models, and interpret results can be a barrier to using these techniques. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Aaron D. Mullen , Daniel R. Harris , Svetla Slavova , V. K. Cody Bumgardner

We use a decision-theoretic framework to study the problem of forecasting discrete outcomes when the forecaster is unable to discriminate among a set of plausible forecast distributions because of partial identification or concerns about…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-12-18 Timothy Christensen , Hyungsik Roger Moon , Frank Schorfheide

A new unimodal distribution family indexed by the mode and three other parameters is derived from a mixture of a Gumbel distribution for the maximum and a Gumbel distribution for the minimum. Properties of the proposed distribution are…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-02 Qingyang Liu , Xianzheng Huang , Haiming Zhou

Although a recent shift has been made in the field of predictive process monitoring to use models from the explainable artificial intelligence field, the evaluation still occurs mainly through performance-based metrics, thus not accounting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-01 Alexander Stevens , Johannes De Smedt

During modeling of dynamical systems, often two or more model architectures are combined to obtain a more powerful or efficient model regarding a specific application area. This covers the combination of multiple machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-03 Tobias Thummerer , Lars Mikelsons

Multivariate time-series forecasting holds immense value across diverse applications, requiring methods to effectively capture complex temporal and inter-variable dynamics. A key challenge lies in uncovering the intrinsic patterns that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Liang Yu , Lai Tu , Xiang Bai

Probabilistic forecasting of multivariate time series is essential for various downstream tasks. Most existing approaches rely on the sequences being uniformly spaced and aligned across all variables. However, real-world multivariate time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Yijun Li , Cheuk Hang Leung , Qi Wu

Variability constraints are an integral part of the requirements for a configurable system. The constraints specified in the requirements on the legal combinations of options define the space of potential valid configurations for the…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2023-09-08 Chin Khor , Robyn Lutz

Declarative approaches to process modeling are regarded as well suited for highly volatile environments as they provide a high degree of flexibility. However, problems in understanding and maintaining declarative business process models…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2015-11-12 Cornelia Haisjackl , Stefan Zugal , Pnina Soffer , Irit Hadar , Manfred Reichert , Jakob Pinggera , Barbara Weber

Modeling processes are the activities of capturing and representing processes and control of their dynamic behavior. Desired features of the model include capture of relevant aspects of a real phenomenon, understandability, and completeness…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2017-07-28 Sabah Al-Fedaghi , Haya Alahmad

Network models are an increasingly popular way to abstract complex psychological phenomena. While the study of the structure of network models has led to many important insights, little attention is paid to how well they predict…

Applications · Statistics 2017-05-29 Jonas Haslbeck , Lourens J Waldorp

Time series forecasting models are becoming increasingly prevalent due to their critical role in decision-making across various domains. However, most existing approaches represent the coupled temporal patterns, often neglecting the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Jintao Zhang , Mingyue Cheng , Xiaoyu Tao , Zhiding Liu , Daoyu Wang

Predictive process monitoring is a subfield of process mining that aims to estimate case or event features for running process instances. Such predictions are of significant interest to the process stakeholders. However, most of the…

Mixed-effect models are flexible tools for researchers in a myriad of fields, but that flexibility comes at the cost of complexity and if users are not careful in how their model is specified, they could be making faulty inferences from…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-28 Keith R. Lohse , Allan J. Kozlowski , Michael J. Strube

The deepening of the penetration of renewable energy is challenging how power system operators cope with their associated variability and uncertainty. The inherent flexibility of dispathchable assets present in power systems, which is often…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-08-19 Mohamed Awadalla , François Bouffard

Systems whose variable are constrained to be positive allow computationally efficient control design. We generalize these results to linear systems which leave a cone invariant. This is a wider class of systems than positive systems. We…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-01-28 Yu Kawano , Fulvio Forni

Data-driven modeling is useful for reconstructing nonlinear dynamical systems when the underlying process is unknown or too expensive to compute. Having reliable uncertainty assessment of the forecast enables tools to be deployed to predict…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-01 Mengyang Gu , Yizi Lin , Victor Chang Lee , Diana Qiu

Linear approximations to the decision boundary of a complex model have become one of the most popular tools for interpreting predictions. In this paper, we study such linear explanations produced either post-hoc by a few recent methods or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-01-31 Maruan Al-Shedivat , Avinava Dubey , Eric P. Xing

A complex pervasive system is typically composed of many cooperating \emph{nodes}, running on machines with different capabilities, and pervasively distributed across the environment. These systems pose several new challenges such as the…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2015-03-17 Nicolo' Maria Calcavecchia , Elisabetta Di Nitto