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In nuclear reactor system design and safety analysis, the Best Estimate plus Uncertainty (BEPU) methodology requires that computer model output uncertainties must be quantified in order to prove that the investigated design stays within…

Computation · Statistics 2018-06-22 Xu Wu , Tomasz Kozlowski , Hadi Meidani , Koroush Shirvan

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is an essential step in computational model validation because assessment of the model accuracy requires a concrete, quantifiable measure of uncertainty in the model predictions. The concept of UQ in the…

Applications · Statistics 2023-03-24 Xu Wu , Ziyu Xie , Farah Alsafadi , Tomasz Kozlowski

Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), or Bayesian calibration, is the process to quantify the uncertainties of random input parameters based on experimental data. The introduction of model discrepancy term is significant because…

Applications · Statistics 2019-07-24 Xu Wu , Koroush Shirvan , Tomasz Kozlowski

Additive manufacturing (AM) technology is being increasingly adopted in a wide variety of application areas due to its ability to rapidly produce, prototype, and customize designs. AM techniques afford significant opportunities in regard to…

Applications · Statistics 2023-03-24 Ziyu Xie , Wen Jiang , Congjian Wang , Xu Wu

Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a process to quantify the uncertainties in random input parameters while achieving consistency between code simulations and physical observations. In this paper, we performed inverse UQ using an…

Applications · Statistics 2018-06-22 Xu Wu , Tomasz Kozlowski , Hadi Meidani , Koroush Shirvan

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential in probabilistic machine learning models, particularly for assessing the reliability of predictions. In this paper, we present a systematic framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-11 Marzieh Ajirak , Anand Ravishankar , Petar M. Djuric

Neural networks (NNs) are currently changing the computational paradigm on how to combine data with mathematical laws in physics and engineering in a profound way, tackling challenging inverse and ill-posed problems not solvable with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-08 Apostolos F Psaros , Xuhui Meng , Zongren Zou , Ling Guo , George Em Karniadakis

This review is designed to introduce mathematicians and computational scientists to quantum computing (QC) through the lens of uncertainty quantification (UQ) by presenting a mathematically rigorous and accessible narrative for…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-03-30 Ryan Bennink , Olena Burkovska , Konstantin Pieper , Jorge Ramirez , Elaine Wong

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the process of systematically determining and characterizing the degree of confidence in computational model predictions. In the context of systems biology, especially with dynamic models, UQ is crucial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-29 Alberto Portela , Julio R. Banga , Marcos Matabuena

The ability to replicate predictions by machine learning (ML) or artificial intelligence (AI) models and results in scientific workflows that incorporate such ML/AI predictions is driven by numerous factors. An uncertainty-aware metric that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-28 Line Pouchard , Kristofer G. Reyes , Francis J. Alexander , Byung-Jun Yoon

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an important component of molecular property prediction, particularly for drug discovery applications where model predictions direct experimental design and where unanticipated imprecision wastes valuable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-21 Lior Hirschfeld , Kyle Swanson , Kevin Yang , Regina Barzilay , Connor W. Coley

Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (IUQ) method has been widely used to quantify the uncertainty of Physical Model Parameters (PMPs) in nuclear Thermal Hydraulics (TH) systems. This paper introduces a novel hierarchical Bayesian model which…

Computation · Statistics 2024-03-27 Chen Wang , Xu Wu , Tomasz Kozlowski

As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical for ensuring the safety and reliability of these models. Traditional UQ methods rely on specifying a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-14 Abhineet Agarwal , Michael Xiao , Rebecca Barter , Omer Ronen , Boyu Fan , Bin Yu

The reliability of the mercury spallation target is mission-critical for the neutron science program of the spallation neutron source at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. We present an inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ) study using…

Accelerator Physics · Physics 2022-07-07 Majdi I. Radaideh , Lianshan Lin , Hao Jiang , Sarah Cousineau

In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ) - the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model - are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-04-09 Alexander Litvinenko , Hermann G. Matthies

Quantifying uncertainty of machine learning model predictions is essential for reliable decision-making, especially in safety-critical applications. Recently, uncertainty quantification (UQ) theory has advanced significantly, building on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-01 Alexander Fishkov , Kajetan Schweighofer , Mykyta Ielanskyi , Nikita Kotelevskii , Mohsen Guizani , Maxim Panov

On top of machine learning models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-28 Venkat Nemani , Luca Biggio , Xun Huan , Zhen Hu , Olga Fink , Anh Tran , Yan Wang , Xiaoge Zhang , Chao Hu

In the framework of BEPU (Best Estimate plus Uncertainty) methodology, the uncertainties involved in the simulations must be quantified to prove that the investigated design is acceptable. The output uncertainties are usually calculated by…

Applications · Statistics 2024-04-09 Chen Wang

A framework is developed based on different uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques in order to assess validation and verification (V&V) metrics in computational physics problems, in general, and computational fluid dynamics (CFD), in…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-07-15 Saleh Rezaeiravesh , Ricardo Vinuesa , Philipp Schlatter

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is important for reliability assessment and enhancement of machine learning models. In deep learning, uncertainties arise not only from data, but also from the training procedure that often injects…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-13 Ziyi Huang , Henry Lam , Haofeng Zhang
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