Related papers: Autoregressive Hidden Markov Models with partial k…
Hidden Markov models are widely used for modeling sequential data but typically have limited applicability in observational causal inference due to their strong conditional independence assumptions. I introduce feedback-augmented…
We search for digital biomarkers from Parkinson's Disease by observing approximate repetitive patterns matching hypothesized step and stride periodic cycles. These observations were modeled as a cycle of hidden states with randomness…
The formalism of state estimation and hidden Markov models (HMMs) can simplify and clarify the discussion of stochastic thermodynamics in the presence of feedback and measurement errors. After reviewing the basic formalism, we use it to…
Hidden semi-Markov Models (HSMM's) - while broadly in use - are restricted to a discrete and uniform time grid. They are thus not well suited to explain often irregularly spaced discrete event data from continuous-time phenomena. We show…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are probabilistic functions of finite Markov chains, or, put in other words, state space models with finite state space. In this paper, we examine subspace estimation methods for HMMs whose output lies a finite…
We investigate nonlinear regression for nonstationary sequential data. In most real-life applications such as business domains including finance, retail, energy and economy, timeseries data exhibits nonstationarity due to the temporally…
Factorial hidden Markov models (FHMMs) are powerful tools of modeling sequential data. Learning FHMMs yields a challenging simultaneous model selection issue, i.e., selecting the number of multiple Markov chains and the dimensionality of…
We describe a generalization of the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) which is able to encode prior information that state transitions are more likely between "nearby" states. This is accomplished by defining a…
Using supervised machine learning approaches to recognize human activities from on-body wearable accelerometers generally requires a large amount of labelled data. When ground truth information is not available, too expensive, time…
A nonhomogeneous hidden semi-Markov model is proposed to segment toroidal time series according to a finite number of latent regimes and, simultaneously, estimate the influence of time-varying covariates on the process' survival under each…
Masked diffusion models (MDMs) have emerged as a promising approach for language modeling, yet they face a performance gap compared to autoregressive models (ARMs) and require more training iterations. In this work, we present the…
Respiratory infections and chronic respiratory diseases impose a heavy health burden worldwide. Coughing is one of the most common symptoms of many such infections, and can be indicative of flare-ups of chronic respiratory diseases. Whether…
The paper investigates the problems of quickest change detection in Markov models and hidden Markov models (HMMs). Sequential observations are taken from a (hidden) Markov model. At some unknown time, an event occurs in the system and…
Electric arc welding (EAW) exhibits strongly non stationary and temporally evolving behavior, making reliable assessment of arc stability difficult using conventional frame based approaches. In this study, arc dynamics are modeled as a…
Many relevant statistical and econometric models for the analysis of longitudinal data include a latent process to account for the unobserved heterogeneity between subjects in a dynamic fashion. Such a process may be continuous (typically…
Time series are used in many domains including finance, engineering, economics and bioinformatics generally to represent the change of a measurement over time. Modeling techniques may then be used to give a synthetic representation of such…
We study a phase transition in parameter learning of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). We do this by generating sequences of observed symbols from given discrete HMMs with uniformly distributed transition probabilities and a noise level encoded…
In this paper, we propose an algorithm for estimating the parameters of a time-homogeneous hidden Markov model from aggregate observations. This problem arises when only the population level counts of the number of individuals at each time…
A crucial challenge for solving problems in conflict research is in leveraging the semi-supervised nature of the data that arise. Observed response data such as counts of battle deaths over time indicate latent processes of interest such as…
Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is often regarded as the dynamical model of choice in many fields and applications. It is also at the heart of most state-of-the-art speech recognition systems since the 70's. However, from Gaussian mixture models…