Related papers: Probability Premium and Attitude Towards Probabili…
One of the central themes in the classification task is the estimation of class posterior probability at a new point $\bf{x}$. The vast majority of classifiers output a score for $\bf{x}$, which is monotonically related to the posterior…
We present a basis for studying questions of cause and effect in statistics which subsumes and reconciles the models proposed by Pearl, Robins, Rubin and others, and which, as far as mathematical notions and notation are concerned, is…
In this paper, we first discuss the origin of preferential attachment. Then we establish the generalized preferential attachment which has two new properties; first, it encapsulates both the topological and weight aspects of a network,…
The apparent failure of individual probabilistic expressions to distinguish uncertainty about truths from uncertainty about probabilistic assessments have prompted researchers to seek formalisms where the two types of uncertainties are…
Evolutionary game theory assumes that individuals maximize their benefits when choosing strategies. However, an alternative perspective proposes that individuals seek to maximize the benefits of others. To explore the relationship between…
This paper is dedicated to a cautious learning methodology for predicting preferences between alternatives characterized by binary attributes (formally, each alternative is seen as a subset of attributes). By "cautious", we mean that the…
This article gives a probabilistic overview of the widely used method of default probability estimation proposed by K. Pluto and D. Tasche. There are listed detailed assumptions and derivation of the inequality where the probability of…
Diversification represents the idea of choosing variety over uniformity. Within the theory of choice, desirability of diversification is axiomatized as preference for a convex combination of choices that are equivalently ranked. This…
Preferential attachment probabilities scheme appear in the context of scale free random graphs [1],[2]. In this work we present preferential attachment probabilities scheme as a sequence of dependent Bernoulli random variables and we give…
This paper covers two topics: first an introduction to Algorithmic Complexity Theory: how it defines probability, some of its characteristic properties and past successful applications. Second, we apply it to problems in A.I. - where it…
The random utility model (RUM, McFadden and Richter, 1990) has been the standard tool to describe the behavior of a population of decision makers. RUM assumes that decision makers behave as if they maximize a rational preference over a…
This paper presents a method for incorporating risk aversion into existing decision tree models used in economic evaluations. The method involves applying a probability weighting function based on rank dependent utility theory to reduced…
The classical propositional assumption-based model is extended to incorporate probabilities for the assumptions. Then it is placed into the framework of evidence theory. Several authors like Laskey, Lehner (1989) and Provan (1990) already…
Classical probability theory supports probability measures, assigning a fixed positive real value to each event, these measures are far from satisfactory in formulating real-life occurrences. The main innovation of this paper is the…
Recently, Halpern and Leung suggested representing uncertainty by a weighted set of probability measures, and suggested a way of making decisions based on this representation of uncertainty: maximizing weighted regret. Their paper does not…
Ordinal Priority Approach (OPA) has recently been proposed to determine the weights of experts, attributes, and alternatives using ordinal preference without precise information for multi-attribute ranking and selection (MARS). This study…
Many representation schemes combining first-order logic and probability have been proposed in recent years. Progress in unifying logical and probabilistic inference has been slower. Existing methods are mainly variants of lifted variable…
This study proposes a tractable stochastic choice model to identify motivations for prosocial behavior, and to explore alternative motivations of deliberate randomization beyond ex-ante fairness concerns. To represent social preferences, we…
The net-premium principle is considered to be the most genuine and fair premium principle in actuarial applications. However, an insurance company, applying the net-premium principle, goes bankrupt with probability one in the long run, even…
The general use of subjective probabilities to model belief has been justified using many axiomatic schemes. For example, ?consistent betting behavior' arguments are well-known. To those not already convinced of the unique fitness and…