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Starting with a likelihood or preference order on worlds, we extend it to a likelihood ordering on sets of worlds in a natural way, and examine the resulting logic. Lewis (1973) earlier considered such a notion of relative likelihood in the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-07-29 Joseph Y. Halpern

We provide a new foundation of risk aversion by showing that this attitude is fully captured by the propensity to seize insurance opportunities. Our foundation, which applies to all probabilistically sophisticated preferences, well accords…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-02-18 Fabio Maccheroni , Massimo Marinacci , Ruodu Wang , Qinyu Wu

Starting with a likelihood or preference order on worlds, we extend it to a likelihood ordering on sets of worlds in a natural way, and examine the resulting logic. Lewis earlier considered such a notion of relative likelihood in the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-08-31 J. Y. Halpern

By specifying model free preferences towards simple nested classes of lottery pairs, we develop the dual story to stand on equal footing with that of (primal) risk apportionment. The dual story provides an intuitive interpretation, and full…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-12-07 Louis R. Eeckhoudt , Roger J. A. Laeven , Harris Schlesinger

We obtain a full characterization of consistency with respect to higher-order stochastic dominance within the rank-dependent utility model. Different from the results in the literature, we do not assume any condition on the utility…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-09-24 Ruodu Wang , Qinyu Wu

We introduce a model-free preference under ambiguity, as a primitive trait of behavior, which we apply once as well as repeatedly. Its single and double application yield simple, easily interpretable definitions of ambiguity aversion and…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-01-24 Mücahit Aygün , Roger J. A. Laeven , Mitja Stadje

The definition of preferences assigned to individuals is a concept that concerns many disciplines, from economics, with the search of an acceptable outcome for an ensemble of individuals, to decision making an analysis of vote systems. We…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-12-02 Elena Ramirez Barrios , Juan G. Diaz Ochoa

This paper investigates a novel behavioral feature of recursive preferences: aversion to risks that persist over time, or simply \textit{correlation aversion}. Greater persistence provides information about future consumption but reduces…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-03-24 Lorenzo Maria Stanca

The concept of "stochastic precedence" between two real-valued random variables has often emerged in different applied frameworks. In this paper we consider a slightly more general, and completely natural, concept of stochastic precedence…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-17 Emilio De Santis , Fabio Fantozzi , Fabio Spizzichino

This paper axiomatizes, in a two-stage setup, a new theory for decision under risk and ambiguity. The axiomatized preference relation $\succeq$ on the space $\tilde{V}$ of random variables induces an ambiguity index $c$ on the space…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-24 Roger J. A. Laeven , Mitja Stadje

Behavioural economics provides labels for patterns in human economic behaviour. Probability weighting is one such label. It expresses a mismatch between probabilities used in a formal model of a decision (i.e. model parameters) and…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2020-05-04 Ole Peters , Alexander Adamou , Mark Kirstein , Yonatan Berman

We study risk processes with level dependent premium rate. Assuming that the premium rate converges, as the risk reserve increases, to the critical value in the net-profit condition, we obtain upper and lower bounds for the ruin…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-07 Denis Denisov , Niklas Gotthardt , Dmitry Korshunov , Vitali Wachtel

The problem of assigning probabilities when little is known is analized in the case where the quanities of interest are physical observables, i.e. can be measured and their values expressed by numbers. It is pointed out that the assignment…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-08-29 Vesselin I. Dimitrov

In this paper, we revisit the equity premium puzzle reported in 1985 by Mehra and Prescott. We show that the large equity premium that they report can be explained by choosing a more appropriate distribution for the return data. We…

General Economics · Economics 2020-01-14 Abootaleb Shirvani , Stoyan V. Stoyanov , Frank J. Fabozzi , Svetlozar T. Rachev

We consider the psychological effect of preference reversal and show that it finds a natural explanation in the frame of quantum decision theory. When people choose between lotteries with non-negative payoffs, they prefer a more certain…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-10-09 V. I. Yukalov , D. Sornette

This paper considers the problem of randomly assigning a set of objects to a set of agents based on the ordinal preferences of agents. We generalize the well-known immediate acceptance algorithm to the afore-mentioned random environments…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2021-04-20 Yajing Chen , Patrick Harless , Zhenhua Jiao

We consider a preferential growth model where particles are added one by one to the system consisting of clusters of particles. A new particle can either form a new cluster (with probability q) or join an already existing cluster with a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 L. Kullmann , J. Kertesz

Probabilistic risk aversion, defined through quasi-convexity in probabilistic mixtures, is a common useful property in decision analysis. We study a general class of non-monotone mappings, called the generalized rank-dependent functions,…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-09-30 Ruodu Wang , Qinyu Wu

Approaches for estimating preferences from human annotated data typically involves inducing a distribution over a ranked list of choices such as the Plackett-Luce model. Indeed, modern AI alignment tools such as Reward Modelling and Direct…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-20 Chirag Nagpal

To choose between two discrete goods, a consumer pays attention to only those with prices below a threshold. From these, she chooses her most preferred good. We assume consumers in a population have the same preference but may have…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-11-07 Kaushil Patel
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