Related papers: FX Market Volatility
This paper conducts an extensive analysis of Bitcoin return series, with a primary focus on three volatility metrics: historical volatility (calculated as the sample standard deviation), forecasted volatility (derived from GARCH-type…
In FX cash markets, market makers provide liquidity to clients for a wide variety of currency pairs. Because of flow uncertainty and market volatility, they face inventory risk. To mitigate this risk, they typically skew their prices to…
We discuss price variations distributions in foreign exchange markets, characterizing them both in calendar and business time frameworks. The price dynamics is found to be the result of two distinct processes, a multi-variance diffusion and…
We propose a pairs trading model that incorporates a time-varying volatility of the Constant Elasticity of Variance type. Our approach is based on stochastic control techniques; given a fixed time horizon and a portfolio of two…
This paper empirically analyses risk in the Euro relative to other currencies. Comparisons are made between a sub period encompassing the final transitional stage to full monetary union with a sub period prior to this. Stability in the face…
The pricing of currency options is largely dependent on the dynamic relationship between a pair of currencies. Typically, the pricing of options with payoffs dependent on multi-assets becomes tricky for reasons such as the non-Gaussian…
In this paper we aim to improve existing empirical exchange rate models by accounting for uncertainty with respect to the underlying structural representation. Within a flexible Bayesian non-linear time series framework, our modeling…
We investigate the historical volatility of the 100 most capitalized stocks traded in US equity markets. An empirical probability density function (pdf) of volatility is obtained and compared with the theoretical predictions of a lognormal…
We analyze structure of the world foreign currency exchange (FX) market viewed as a network of interacting currencies. We analyze daily time series of FX data for a set of 63 currencies, including gold, silver and platinum. We group…
A time series model for the FX dynamics is presented which takes into account structural peculiarities of the market, namely its heterogeneity and an information flow from long to short time horizons. The model emerges from an analogy…
We consider stochastic volatility models under parameter uncertainty and investigate how model derived prices of European options are affected. We let the pricing parameters evolve dynamically in time within a specified region, and…
An Entropic Dynamics of exchange rates is laid down to model the dynamics of foreign exchange rates, FX, and European Options on FX. The main objective is to represent an alternative framework to model dynamics. Entropic inference is an…
When trading American and Asian options in the FX derivatives market, banks must calculate prices using a complex mathematical model. It is often observed that different models produce varying prices for the same exotic option, which…
This paper presents a novel machine learning approach to GDP prediction that incorporates volatility as a model weight. The proposed method is specifically designed to identify and select the most relevant macroeconomic variables for…
Predicting volatility in financial markets, including stocks, index ETFs, foreign exchange, and cryptocurrencies, remains a challenging task due to the inherent complexity and non-linear dynamics of these time series. In this study, I apply…
We have presented a novel technique of detecting intermittencies in a financial time series of the foreign exchange rate data of U.S.- Euro dollar(US/EUR) using a combination of both statistical and spectral techniques. This has been…
In a universe with a single currency, there would be no foreign exchange market, no foreign exchange rates, and no foreign exchange. Over the past twenty-five years, the way the market has performed those tasks has changed enormously. The…
In this paper, we model financial markets with semi-Markov volatilities and price covarinace and correlation swaps for this markets. Numerical evaluations of vari- nace, volatility, covarinace and correlations swaps with semi-Markov…
In a stochastic volatility framework, we find a general pricing equation for the class of payoffs depending on the terminal value of a market asset and its final quadratic variation. This allows a pricing tool for European-style claims…
We develop a stochastic volatility framework for modeling multiple currencies based on CBI-time-changed L\'evy processes. The proposed framework captures the typical risk characteristics of FX markets and is coherent with the symmetries of…