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Motivated by modern applications such as computerized adaptive testing, sequential rank aggregation, and heterogeneous data source selection, we study the problem of active sequential estimation, which involves adaptively selecting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-14 Xiaoou Li , Hongru Zhao

From a model-building perspective, we propose a paradigm shift for fitting over-parameterized models. Philosophically, the mindset is to fit models to future observations rather than to the observed sample. Technically, given an imputation…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-09 Yiran Jiang , Chuanhai Liu

Motivated by the importance of explainability in modern machine learning, we design bandit algorithms that are efficient and interpretable. A bandit algorithm is interpretable if it explores with the objective of reducing uncertainty in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-12 Subhojyoti Mukherjee , Ruihao Zhu , Branislav Kveton

Causal knowledge can be used to support decision-making problems. This has been recognized in the causal bandits literature, where a causal (multi-armed) bandit is characterized by a causal graphical model and a target variable. The arms…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Francisco N. F. Q. Simoes , Itai Feigenbaum , Mehdi Dastani , Thijs van Ommen

Stepped-wedge designs are increasingly used in randomized experiments to accommodate logistical and ethical constraints by staggering treatment roll-out over time. Despite their popularity, existing analytical methods largely rely on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-12 Liangbo Lyu , Bingkai Wang

We study policy evaluation of offline contextual bandits subject to unobserved confounders. Sensitivity analysis methods are commonly used to estimate the policy value under the worst-case confounding over a given uncertainty set. However,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Kei Ishikawa , Niao He , Takafumi Kanamori

The problem of statistical inference in its various forms has been the subject of decades-long extensive research. Most of the effort has been focused on characterizing the behavior as a function of the number of available samples, with far…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-12 Tomer Berg , Or Ordentlich , Ofer Shayevitz

Information-directed sampling (IDS) has recently demonstrated its potential as a data-efficient reinforcement learning algorithm. However, it is still unclear what is the right form of information ratio to optimize when contextual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-10 Botao Hao , Tor Lattimore , Chao Qin

This paper considers inference for conditional moment inequality models using a multiscale statistic. We derive the asymptotic distribution of this test statistic and use the result to propose feasible critical values that have a simple…

Applications · Statistics 2015-12-10 Timothy B. Armstrong , Hock Peng Chan

Autonomous selection of optimal options for data collection from multiple alternatives is challenging in uncertain environments. When secondary information about options is accessible, such problems can be framed as contextual multi-armed…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Shohei Wakayama , Alberto Candela , Paul Hayne , Nisar Ahmed

Excessively changing policies in many real world scenarios is difficult, unethical, or expensive. After all, doctor guidelines, tax codes, and price lists can only be reprinted so often. We may thus want to only change a policy when it is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-16 Benjamin Lansdell , Sofia Triantafillou , Konrad Kording

Contextual bandits algorithms have become essential in real-world user interaction problems in recent years. However, these algorithms rely on context as attribute value representation, which makes them unfeasible for real-world domains…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-18 Ashutosh Kakadiya , Sriraam Natarajan , Balaraman Ravindran

Sampling from the equilibrium distribution has always been a major problem in molecular simulations due to the very high dimensionality of conformational space. Over several decades, many approaches have been used to overcome the problem.…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-03-02 Adrià Pérez , Pablo Herrera-Nieto , Stefan Doerr , Gianni De Fabritiis

We explore algorithms to select actions in the causal bandit setting where the learner can choose to intervene on a set of random variables related by a causal graph, and the learner sequentially chooses interventions and observes a sample…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-14 Alan Malek , Virginia Aglietti , Silvia Chiappa

Stochastic linear contextual bandit algorithms have substantial applications in practice, such as recommender systems, online advertising, clinical trials, etc. Recent works show that optimal bandit algorithms are vulnerable to adversarial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-31 Qin Ding , Cho-Jui Hsieh , James Sharpnack

As artificial intelligence and machine learning tools become more accessible, and scientists face new obstacles to data collection (e.g., rising costs, declining survey response rates), researchers increasingly use predictions from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-08 Stephen Salerno , Kentaro Hoffman , Awan Afiaz , Anna Neufeld , Tyler H. McCormick , Jeffrey T. Leek

We consider the contextual bandit problem where at each time, the agent only has access to a noisy version of the context and the error variance (or an estimator of this variance). This setting is motivated by a wide range of applications…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-19 Yongyi Guo , Ziping Xu , Susan Murphy

Contextual Multi-Armed Bandits is a well-known and accepted online optimization algorithm, that is used in many Web experiences to tailor content or presentation to users' traffic. Much has been published on theoretical guarantees (e.g.…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2019-07-12 David Abensur , Ivan Balashov , Shaked Bar , Ronny Lempel , Nurit Moscovici , Ilan Orlov , Danny Rosenstein , Ido Tamir

Typical models of learning assume incremental estimation of continuously-varying decision variables like expected rewards. However, this class of models fails to capture more idiosyncratic, discrete heuristics and strategies that people and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-27 Carlos G. Correa , Thomas L. Griffiths , Nathaniel D. Daw

We consider the problem of contextual bandits and imitation learning, where the learner lacks direct knowledge of the executed action's reward. Instead, the learner can actively query an expert at each round to compare two actions and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-25 Ayush Sekhari , Karthik Sridharan , Wen Sun , Runzhe Wu
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