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A novel method is proposed for detecting changes in the covariance structure of moderate dimensional time series. This non-linear test statistic has a number of useful properties. Most importantly, it is independent of the underlying…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-18 Sean Ryan , Rebecca Killick

We propose an algorithm for simultaneously detecting and locating changepoints in a time series, and a framework for predicting the distribution of the next point in the series. The kernel of the algorithm is a system of equations that…

Applications · Statistics 2008-12-09 Allen B. Downey

Traditional methods for inference in change point detection often rely on a large number of observed data points and can be inaccurate in non-asymptotic settings. With the rise of mobile health and digital phenotyping studies, where…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-11 Ian Barnett

We consider an integer-valued time series $Y=(Y_t)_{t\in\Z}$ where the models after a time $k^*$ is Poisson autoregressive with the conditional mean that depends on a parameter $\theta^*\in\Theta\subset\R^d$. The structure of the process…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-05 William Kengne , Isidore Séraphin Ngongo

Data objects taking value in a general metric space have become increasingly common in modern data analysis. In this paper, we study two important statistical inference problems, namely, two-sample testing and change-point detection, for…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-11 Feiyu Jiang , Changbo Zhu , Xiaofeng Shao

As a new method for detecting change-points in high-resolution time series, we apply Maximum Mean Discrepancy to the distributions of ordinal patterns in different parts of a time series. The main advantage of this approach is its…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-10-19 Mathieu Sinn , Ali Ghodsi , Karsten Keller

We present simple to implement Wald-type statistics that deliver a general nonparametric inference theory for linear restrictions on varying coefficients in a range of regression models allowing for cross-sectional or spatial dependence. We…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-27 Abhimanyu Gupta , Xi Qu , Sorawoot Srisuma , Jiajun Zhang

A novel approach to quantile estimation in multivariate linear regression models with change-points is proposed: the change-point detection and the model estimation are both performed automatically, by adopting either the quantile fused…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-10 Gabriela Ciuperca , Matus Maciak

Non-parametric and distribution-free two-sample tests have been the foundation of many change point detection algorithms. However, randomness in the test statistic as a function of time makes them susceptible to false positives and…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-10-29 Kevin C. Cheng , Eric L. Miller , Michael C. Hughes , Shuchin Aeron

In testing of hypothesis the robustness of the tests is an important concern. Generally, the maximum likelihood based tests are most efficient under standard regularity conditions, but they are highly non-robust even under small deviations…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-01 Ayanendranath Basu , Abhijit Mandal , Nirian Martin , Leandro Pardo

We consider a popular online change-point problem of detecting a transient change in distributions of i.i.d. random variables. For this change-point problem, several change-point procedures are formulated and some advanced results for a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-08 Jack Noonan

The paper studies the problem of detecting and locating change points in multivariate time-evolving data. The problem has a long history in statistics and signal processing and various algorithms have been developed primarily for simple…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-13 Jialiang Geng , George Michailidis

In this paper we develop a generalized likelihood ratio scan method (GLRSM) for multiple change-points inference in piecewise stationary time series, which estimates the number and positions of change-points and provides a confidence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-03-03 Wai Leong Ng , Shenyi Pan , Chun Yip Yau

Modern information systems generate large volumes of data with anomalies that occur at unknown points in time and have to be detected quickly and reliably with low false alarm rates. The paper develops a general theory of quickest…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-16 Alexander G Tartakovsky , Valentin Spivak

This paper describes and compares several prominent single and multiple changepoint techniques for time series data. Due to their importance in inferential matters, changepoint research on correlated data has accelerated recently.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-07 Xueheng Shi , Colin Gallagher , Robert Lund , Rebecca Killick

We are concerned with the problem of detecting a single change point in the model parameters of time series data generated from an exponential family. In contrast to the existing literature, we allow that the true location of the change…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-07 Cassandra Milbradt

Change point detection in time series has attracted substantial interest, but most of the existing results have been focused on detecting change points in the time domain. This paper considers the situation where nonlinear time series have…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-22 Yan Cui , Jun Yang , Zhou Zhou

For estimating the proportion of false null hypotheses in multiple testing, a family of estimators by Storey (2002) is widely used in the applied and statistical literature, with many methods suggested for selecting the parameter $\lambda$.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-07 Anica Kostic , Piotr Fryzlewicz

The objective of the change-point detection is to discover the abrupt property changes lying behind the time-series data. In this paper, we firstly summarize the definition and in-depth implication of the changepoint detection. The next…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-21 Yixiao Li , Gloria Lin , Thomas Lau , Ruochen Zeng

We propose a new, generic and flexible methodology for nonparametric function estimation, in which we first estimate the number and locations of any features that may be present in the function, and then estimate the function parametrically…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-17 Rafal Baranowski , Yining Chen , Piotr Fryzlewicz
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