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This paper introduces a novel decomposition framework to explain heterogeneity in causal effects observed across different studies, considering both observational and randomized settings. We present a formal decomposition of between-study…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-18 Brian Gilbert , Ivan Dıaz , Kara E. Rudolph , Nicholas Williams , Tat-Thang Vo

Mediation analysis for probabilities of causation (PoC) provides a fundamental framework for evaluating the necessity and sufficiency of treatment in provoking an event through different causal pathways. One of the primary objectives of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-09 Yuta Kawakami , Jin Tian

Causal mediation analysis (CMA) is a powerful method to dissect the total effect of a treatment into direct and mediated effects within the potential outcome framework. This is important in many scientific applications to identify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-14 Ziyang Jiang , Yiling Liu , Michael H. Klein , Ahmed Aloui , Yiman Ren , Keyu Li , Vahid Tarokh , David Carlson

We discuss causal mediation analyses for survival data and propose a new approach based on the additive hazards model. The emphasis is on a dynamic point of view, that is, understanding how the direct and indirect effects develop over time.…

Instrumental variables are widely used to deal with unmeasured confounding in observational studies and imperfect randomized controlled trials. In these studies, researchers often target the so-called local average treatment effect as it is…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-24 Linbo Wang , Yuexia Zhang , Thomas S. Richardson , James M. Robins

This paper develops an empirical balancing approach for the estimation of treatment effects under two-sided noncompliance using a binary conditionally independent instrumental variable. The method weighs both treatment and outcome…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-07-10 Phillip Heiler

Many epidemiological questions concern potential interventions to alter the pathways presumed to mediate an association. For example, we consider a study that investigates the benefit of interventions in young adulthood for ameliorating the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-14 Margarita Moreno-Betancur , Paul Moran , Denise Becker , George C Patton , John B Carlin

Conventional research on educational effects typically either employs a "years of schooling" measure of education, or dichotomizes attainment as a point-in-time treatment. Yet, such a conceptualization of education is misaligned with the…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-11 Aleksei Opacic

For counterfactual policy evaluation, it is important to ensure that treatment parameters are relevant to policies in question. This is especially challenging under unobserved heterogeneity, as is well featured in the definition of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-08-08 Sukjin Han , Shenshen Yang

This paper develops a framework for identifying treatment effects when a policy simultaneously alters both the incentive to participate and the outcome of interest -- such as hiring decisions and wages in response to employment subsidies;…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-01 Haotian Deng

We consider mediated effects of an exposure, X on an outcome, Y, via a mediator, M, under no unmeasured confounding assumptions in the setting where models for the conditional expectation of the mediator and outcome are partially linear. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-08 Oliver Hines , Stijn Vansteelandt , Karla Diaz-Ordaz

Causal mediation analysis has historically been limited in two important ways: (i) a focus has traditionally been placed on binary treatments and static interventions, and (ii) direct and indirect effect decompositions have been pursued…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-13 Nima S. Hejazi , Kara E. Rudolph , Mark J. van der Laan , Iván Díaz

This paper considers the identification of dynamic treatment effects with panel data, in complex designs where the treatment may not be binary and may not be absorbing. We first show that under no-anticipation and parallel-trends…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-23 Clément de Chaisemartin , Xavier D'Haultfœuille

It is often of interest to decompose a total effect of an exposure into the component that acts on the outcome through some mediator and the component that acts independently through other pathways. Said another way, we are interested in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-21 Peng Ding , Tyler J. VanderWeele

Causal inference on multiple non-independent outcomes raises serious challenges, because multivariate techniques that properly account for the outcome's dependence structure need to be considered. We focus on the case of binary outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-11 Monia Lupparelli , Alessandra Mattei

Mediation analysis aims to decipher the underlying causal mechanisms between an exposure, an outcome, and intermediate variables called mediators. Initially developed for fixed-time mediator and outcome, it has been extended to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-15 K. Le Bourdonnec , L. Valeri , C. Proust-Lima

Causal mediation analysis is an important statistical tool to quantify effects transmitted by intermediate variables from a cause to an outcome. There is a gap in mediation analysis methods to handle mixture mediator data that are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-22 Meilin Jiang , Seonjoo Lee , A. James O'Malley , Pengfei Li , Zhigang Li

Natural direct and indirect effects are mediational estimands that decompose the average treatment effect and describe how outcomes would be affected by contrasting levels of a treatment through changes induced in mediator values (in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-10 Kara E. Rudolph , Ivan Diaz

The goal of causal mediation analysis, often described within the potential outcomes framework, is to decompose the effect of an exposure on an outcome of interest along different causal pathways. Using the assumption of sequential…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-09 Lexi Rene , Antonio R. Linero , Elizabeth Slate

There is a growing literature on finding so-called optimal treatment rules, which are rules by which to assign treatment to individuals based on an individual's characteristics, such that a desired outcome is maximized. A related goal…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-22 Kara E. Rudolph , Ivan Diaz