Related papers: Probabilistic causes in Markov chains
Process mining is widely used to diagnose processes and uncover performance and compliance problems. It is also possible to see relations between different behavioral aspects, e.g., cases that deviate more at the beginning of the process…
This simple note lays out a few observations which are well known in many ways but may not have been said in quite this way before. The basic idea is that when comparing two different Markov chains it is useful to couple them is such a way…
In fact-checking applications, a common reason to reject a claim is to detect the presence of erroneous cause-effect relationships between the events at play. However, current automated fact-checking methods lack dedicated causal-based…
The common cause principle for two random variables $A$ and $B$ is examined in the case of causal insufficiency, when their common cause $C$ is known to exist, but only the joint probability of $A$ and $B$ is observed. As a result, $C$…
Many legal cases require decisions about causality, responsibility or blame, and these may be based on statistical data. However, causal inferences from such data are beset by subtle conceptual and practical difficulties, and in general it…
A learning algorithm is presented which given the structure of a causal tree, will estimate its link probabilities by sequential measurements on the leaves only. Internal nodes of the tree represent conceptual (hidden) variables…
Structural causal models are the basic modelling unit in Pearl's causal theory; in principle they allow us to solve counterfactuals, which are at the top rung of the ladder of causation. But they often contain latent variables that limit…
Concurrent systems identify systems, either software, hardware or even biological systems, that are characterized by sets of independent actions that can be executed in any order or simultaneously. Computer scientists resort to a causal…
We propose an abductive diagnosis theory that integrates probabilistic, causal and taxonomic knowledge. Probabilistic knowledge allows us to select the most likely explanation; causal knowledge allows us to make reasonable independence…
With recent advances in natural language processing, rationalization becomes an essential self-explaining diagram to disentangle the black box by selecting a subset of input texts to account for the major variation in prediction. Yet,…
Complex systems can be described at myriad different scales, and their causal workings often have multiscale structure (e.g., a computer can be described at the microscale of its hardware circuitry, the mesoscale of its machine code, and…
When the initial and transition probabilities of a finite Markov chain in discrete time are not well known, we should perform a sensitivity analysis. This can be done by considering as basic uncertainty models the so-called credal sets that…
We propose a formalization of the three-tier causal hierarchy of association, intervention, and counterfactuals as a series of probabilistic logical languages. Our languages are of strictly increasing expressivity, the first capable of…
The successive discrete structures generated by a sequential algorithm from random input constitute a Markov chain that may exhibit long term dependence on its first few input values. Using examples from random graph theory and search…
The aim of this note is to construct a probability measure on the space of trajectories in a continuous time Markov chain having a finite state diagram, or more generally which admits a global bound on its degree and rates. Our approach is…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have become a cornerstone of many modern scientific analyses by providing a straightforward approach to numerically estimate uncertainties in the parameters of a model using a sequence of random…
The analysis of parametrised systems is a growing field in verification, but the analysis of parametrised probabilistic systems is still in its infancy. This is partly because it is much harder: while there are beautiful cut-off results for…
Methods for causal inference from observational data are an alternative for scenarios where collecting counterfactual data or realizing a randomized experiment is not possible. Adopting a stacking approach, our proposed method ParKCA…
Parametric Markov chains occur quite naturally in various applications: they can be used for a conservative analysis of probabilistic systems (no matter how the parameter is chosen, the system works to specification); they can be used to…
Probabilities of causation (PoC) are valuable concepts for explainable artificial intelligence and practical decision-making. PoC are originally defined for scalar binary variables. In this paper, we extend the concept of PoC to continuous…