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Penalized B-splines are routinely used in additive models to describe smooth changes in a response with quantitative covariates. It is typically done through the conditional mean in the exponential family using generalized additive models…
In this paper, we study nonparametric models allowing for locally stationary regressors and a regression function that changes smoothly over time. These models are a natural extension of time series models with time-varying coefficients. We…
Augmenting a smooth cost function with an $\ell_1$ penalty allows analysts to efficiently conduct estimation and variable selection simultaneously in sophisticated models and can be efficiently implemented using proximal gradient methods.…
In order to learn the complex features of large spatio-temporal data, models with large parameter sets are often required. However, estimating a large number of parameters is often infeasible due to the computational and memory costs of…
We propose a flexible nonparametric Bayesian modelling framework for multivariate time series of count data based on tensor factorisations. Our models can be viewed as infinite state space Markov chains of known maximal order with…
Additive-interactive regression has recently been shown to offer attractive minimax error rates over traditional nonparametric multivariate regression in a wide variety of settings, including cases where the predictor count is much larger…
We consider the nonparametric estimation of the intensity function of a Poisson point process in a circular model from indirect observations $N_1,\ldots,N_n$. These observations emerge from hidden point process realizations with the target…
This work presents a novel data augmentation solution for non-stationary multivariate time series and its application to failure prognostics. The method extends previous work from the authors which is based on time-varying autoregressive…
Time series prediction with missing values is an important problem of time series analysis since complete data is usually hard to obtain in many real-world applications. To model the generation of time series, autoregressive (AR) model is a…
This article extends the autoregressive count time series model class by allowing for a model with regimes, that is, some of the parameters in the model depend on the state of an unobserved Markov chain. We develop a quasi-maximum…
The problem of estimating censored linear regression models with autocorrelated errors arises in many environmental and social studies. The present work proposes a Bayesian approach to estimate censored regression models with AR(p) errors.…
Prediction modelling of claim frequency is an important task for pricing and risk management in non-life insurance and needed to be updated frequently with the changes in the insured population, regulatory legislation and technology.…
Sparse recovery in linear systems underpins applications from signal processing to high-dimensional regression. Sparse Bayesian Learning, grounded in the principle of automatic relevance determination (ARD), offers a practical Bayesian…
Our goal is to estimate causal interactions in multivariate time series. Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models, these can be defined based on non-vanishing coefficients belonging to respective time-lagged instances. As in most cases a…
Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) enables rapid parameter inference for complex simulators with intractable likelihoods. NPE trains an inference network to estimate a probability density over parameters given data, typically assumed to be…
This paper considers a general class of parameter-driven models for time series of counts. A comprehensive simulation study is conducted to evaluate the accuracy and efficiency of three estimators: the maximum likelihood estimators of the…
This paper proposes a wavelet-based method for analysing periodic autoregressive moving average (PARMA) time series. Even though Fourier analysis provides an effective method for analysing periodic time series, it requires the estimation of…
This work deals with the problem of simultaneous regulation and model parameter estimation in adaptive model predictive control. We propose an adaptive model predictive control and conditions which guarantee a persistently exciting closed…
We introduce a recursive algorithm of conveniently general form for estimating the coefficient of a moving average model of order one and obtain convergence results for both correct and misspecified MA(1) models. The algorithm encompasses…
This paper studies the state estimation problem of linear discrete-time systems with stochastic unknown inputs. The unknown input is a wide-sense stationary process while no other prior informaton needs to be known. We propose an…