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A common goal in observational research is to estimate marginal causal effects in the presence of confounding variables. One solution to this problem is to use the covariate distribution to weight the outcomes such that the data appear…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-18 Kevin P. Josey , Elizabeth Juarez-Colunga , Fan Yang , Debashis Ghosh

We develop a semiparametric Bayesian approach for estimating the mean response in a missing data model with binary outcomes and a nonparametrically modelled propensity score. Equivalently we estimate the causal effect of a treatment,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-23 Kolyan Ray , Aad van der Vaart

A number of distributions that arise in statistical applications can be expressed in the form of a weighted density: the product of a base density and a nonnegative weight function. Generating variates from such a distribution may be…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-18 Andrew M. Raim , James A. Livsey , Kyle M. Irimata

Covariate balance is crucial for unconfounded descriptive or causal comparisons. However, lack of balance is common in observational studies. This article considers weighting strategies for balancing covariates. We define a general class of…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-09-30 Fan Li , Kari Lock Morgan , Alan M. Zaslavsky

Covariate balance is crucial for unconfounded descriptive or causal comparisons. However, lack of balance is common in observational studies. This article considers weighting strategies for balancing covariates. We define a general class of…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-17 Fan Li , Kari Lock Morgan , Alan M. Zaslavsky

Although propensity scores have been central to the estimation of causal effects for over 30 years, only recently has the statistical literature begun to consider in detail methods for Bayesian estimation of propensity scores and causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-09 Corwin M. Zigler

This paper proposes a new statistical approach for assessing treatment effect using Bayesian Networks (BNs). The goal is to draw causal inferences from observational data with a binary outcome and discrete covariates. The BNs are here used…

We present methods for estimating loss-based measures of the performance of a prediction model in a target population that differs from the source population in which the model was developed, in settings where outcome and covariate data are…

In observational studies, the recorded treatment assignment is not purely random, but it is influenced by external factors such as patient characteristics, reimbursement policies, and existing guidelines. Therefore, the treatment effect can…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-02 Sara Poletto , Enrico Longato , Erica Tavazzi , Martina Vettoretti

Information projections are the key building block of variational inference algorithms and are used to approximate a target probabilistic model by projecting it onto a family of tractable distributions. In general, there is no guarantee on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-10-06 Lun-Kai Hsu , Tudor Achim , Stefano Ermon

In various statistical settings, the goal is to estimate a function which is restricted by the statistical model only through a conditional moment restriction. Prominent examples include the nonparametric instrumental variable framework for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-28 AmirEmad Ghassami , James M. Robins , Andrea Rotnitzky

In inverse problems, one attempts to infer spatially variable functions from indirect measurements of a system. To practitioners of inverse problems, the concept of "information" is familiar when discussing key questions such as which parts…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-02-12 Wolfgang Bangerth , Chris R. Johnson , Dennis K. Njeru , Bart van Bloemen Waanders

Learning from implicit feedback is challenging because of the difficult nature of the one-class problem: we can observe only positive examples. Most conventional methods use a pairwise ranking approach and negative samplers to cope with the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-12 Riku Togashi , Masahiro Kato , Mayu Otani , Tetsuya Sakai , Shin'ichi Satoh

Learning and evaluating recommender systems from logged implicit feedback is challenging due to exposure bias. While inverse propensity scoring (IPS) corrects this bias, it often suffers from high variance and instability. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Rahul Raja , Arpita Vats

Examples with bound information on the regression function and density abound in many real applications. We propose a novel approach for estimating such functions by incorporating the prior knowledge on the bounds. Specially, a Gaussian…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-30 Jize Zhang , Lizhen Lin

A learned generative model often produces biased statistics relative to the underlying data distribution. A standard technique to correct this bias is importance sampling, where samples from the model are weighted by the likelihood ratio…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-05 Aditya Grover , Jiaming Song , Alekh Agarwal , Kenneth Tran , Ashish Kapoor , Eric Horvitz , Stefano Ermon

Nonprobability (convenience) samples are increasingly sought to stabilize estimations for one or more population variables of interest that are performed using a randomized survey (reference) sample by increasing the effective sample size.…

There is growing interest in a hybrid control design in which a randomized controlled trial is augmented with an external control arm from a previous trial or real world data. Existing methods for analyzing hybrid control studies include…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-30 Zhiwei Zhang , Jialuo Liu , Wei Liu

We investigate the estimation of subgroup treatment effects with observational data. Existing propensity score matching and weighting methods are mostly developed for estimating overall treatment effect. Although the true propensity score…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-20 Jing Dong , Junni L Zhang , Fan Li

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…

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