Related papers: State capacity and vulnerability to natural disast…
We study the effects on economic activity of a pure temporary change in government debt and the relationship between the debt multiplier and the level of debt in an overlapping generations framework. The debt multiplier is positive but…
We propose that catastrophic events are "outliers" with statistically different properties than the rest of the population and result from mechanisms involving amplifying critical cascades. Applications and the potential for prediction are…
Extreme weather events can have severe impacts on national economies, leading the recovery of low- to middle-income countries to become reliant on foreign financial aid. Foreign aid, however, is slow and uncertain. Therefore, the Sendai…
Natural disasters affect hundreds of millions of people worldwide every year. Early warning, humanitarian response and recovery mechanisms can be improved by using big data sources. Measuring the different dimensions of the impact of…
When do multinationals show resilience during natural disasters? To answer this, we develop a simple model in which foreign multinationals and local firms in the host country are interacted through input-output linkages. When natural…
We consider the problem of governing systemic risk in a banking system model. The banking system model consists in an initial value problem for a system of stochastic differential equations whose dependent variables are the log-monetary…
We provide two methodological insights on \emph{ex ante} policy evaluation for macro models of economic development. First, we show that the problems of parameter instability and lack of behavioral constancy can be overcome by considering…
Infrastructure systems play a critical role in providing essential products and services for the functioning of modern society; however, they are vulnerable to disasters and their service disruptions can cause severe societal impacts. To…
We present a cognitive model of opinion dynamics which studies the behavior of a population of interacting individuals in the context of risk of natural disaster. In particular, we investigate the response of the individuals to the…
We investigate an agent-based model for the emergence of corruption in public contracts. There are two types of agents: business people and public servants. Both business people and public servants can adopt two strategies: corrupt or…
Resilience is a rehashed concept in natural hazard management - resilience of cities to earthquakes, to floods, to fire, etc. In a word, a system is said to be resilient if there exists a strategy that can drive the system state back to…
Models that explain the economical and political realities of nowadays societies should help all the world's citizens. Yet, the last four years showed that the current models are missing. Here we develop a dynamical society-deciders model…
Poor economies not only produce less; they typically produce things that involve fewer inputs and fewer intermediate steps. Yet the supply chains of poor countries face more frequent disruptions---delivery failures, faulty parts, delays,…
We study how firm heterogeneity and market power affect macroeconomic fragility, defined as the probability of long slumps. We propose a theory in which the positive interaction between firm entry, competition and factor supply can give…
How does public debt matter for price stability? If it is useful for the private sector to insure idiosyncratic risk, even transitory government debt expansions can exert upward pressure on interest rates and create inflation. As I…
The view that altruistic punishment plays an important role in supporting public cooperation among human beings and other species has been widely accepted by the public. However, the positive role of altruistic punishment in enhancing…
We estimate the loss of value that companies might suffer from nature overexploitation. We find that global equities shed 26.8% in a scenario of unabated nature decline, while the worst-performing firms lose ~75% of their value. Our risk…
The costs and impacts of government corruption range from impairing a country's economic growth to affecting its citizens' well-being and safety. Public contracting between government dependencies and private sector instances, referred to…
Based on realistic estimates of geophysical conditions it is demonstrated that by practical means; (1) the intensity of a hurricane can be diminished before making landfall; (2) and other circumstances, a potential hurricane might be…
I develop a tractable adverse-selection model comparing secured bank loans and bonds when both pledge collateral but differ in effective liquidation efficiency. A small wedge in recovery rates generates coexistence, a sharp bank-bond…