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Sensitivity analysis is important to assess the impact of unmeasured confounding in causal inference from observational studies. The marginal sensitivity model (MSM) provides a useful approach in quantifying the influence of unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-14 Yi Zhang , Wenfu Xu , Zhiqiang Tan

In causal mediation analysis, identification of existing causal direct or indirect effects requires untestable assumptions in which potential outcomes and potential mediators are independent. This paper defines a new causal direct and…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-29 Takahiro Hoshino

While estimation of the marginal (total) causal effect of a point exposure on an outcome is arguably the most common objective of experimental and observational studies in the health and social sciences, in recent years, investigators have…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-10-18 Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen , Ilya Shpitser

Causal mediation analysis provides techniques for defining and estimating effects that may be endowed with mechanistic interpretations. With many scientific investigations seeking to address mechanistic questions, causal direct and indirect…

In many observational studies, researchers are often interested in studying the effects of multiple exposures on a single outcome. Standard approaches for high-dimensional data such as the lasso assume the associations between the exposures…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-06 Dingke Tang , Dehan Kong , Linbo Wang

The No Unmeasured Confounding Assumption is widely used to identify causal effects in observational studies. Recent work on proximal inference has provided alternative identification results that succeed even in the presence of unobserved…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-17 Benjamin Kompa , David R. Bellamy , Thomas Kolokotrones , James M. Robins , Andrew L. Beam

Unobserved confounding is a fundamental challenge for estimating causal effects. To address unobserved confounding, recent literature has turned to two different approaches -- proxy variables and the use of multiple treatments. The first…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-20 Aytijhya Saha , Stephen Bates , Devavrat Shah

We report assumption-free bounds for any contrast between the probabilities of the potential outcome under exposure and non-exposure when the confounders are missing not at random. We assume that the missingness mechanism is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-04 Jose M. Peña

This paper deals with the problem of evaluating the causal effect using observational data in the presence of an unobserved exposure/ outcome variable, when cause-effect relationships between variables can be described as a directed acyclic…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-06-18 Manabu Kuroki , Zhihong Cai

We consider the estimation of average treatment effects in observational studies and propose a new framework of robust causal inference with unobserved confounders. Our approach is based on distributionally robust optimization and proceeds…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-06 Dimitris Bertsimas , Kosuke Imai , Michael Lingzhi Li

A major challenge in estimating treatment effects in observational studies is the reliance on untestable conditions such as the assumption of no unmeasured confounding. In this work, we propose an algorithm that can falsify the assumption…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-03 Rickard K. A. Karlsson , Jesse H. Krijthe

Observational studies are the primary source of data for causal inference, but it is challenging when existing unmeasured confounding. Missing data problems are also common in observational studies. How to obtain the causal effects from the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-15 Renzhong Zheng

In many applications of causal inference, the treatment received by one unit may influence the outcome of another, a phenomenon referred to as interference. Although there are several frameworks for conducting causal inference in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-27 Matvey Ortyashov , AmirEmad Ghassami

To estimate causal effects, analysts performing observational studies in health settings utilize several strategies to mitigate bias due to confounding by indication. There are two broad classes of approaches for these purposes: use of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-01 Roy S. Zawadzki , Joshua D. Grill , Daniel L. Gillen

We consider a causal effect that is confounded by an unobserved variable, but with observed proxy variables of the confounder. We show that, with at least two independent proxy variables satisfying a certain rank condition, the causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-29 Wang Miao , Zhi Geng , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Whereas confidence intervals are used to assess uncertainty due to unmeasured individuals, confounding intervals can be used to assess uncertainty due to unmeasured attributes. Previously, we have introduced a methodology for computing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Brian Knaeble , R Mitchell Hughes

Unmeasured confounding can severely bias causal effect estimates from spatiotemporal observational data, especially when the confounders do not vary smoothly in time and space. In this work, we develop a method for addressing unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-29 Jiaxi Wu , Alexander Franks

When studying the causal effect of $x$ on $y$, researchers may conduct regression and report a confidence interval for the slope coefficient $\beta_{x}$. This common confidence interval provides an assessment of uncertainty from sampling…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-26 Brian Knaeble , Braxton Osting , Mark Abramson

We present two methods for bounding the probabilities of benefit and harm under unmeasured confounding. The first method computes the (upper or lower) bound of either probability as a function of the observed data distribution and two…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-08 Jose M. Peña

Consider sensitivity analysis to assess the worst-case possible values of counterfactual outcome means and average treatment effects under sequential unmeasured confounding in a longitudinal study with time-varying treatments and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-08-31 Zhiqiang Tan