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This paper introduces a new method for testing the statistical significance of estimated parameters in predictive regressions. The approach features a new family of test statistics that are robust to the degree of persistence of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-04 Jean-Yves Pitarakis

This work develops central limit theorems for cross-validation and consistent estimators of its asymptotic variance under weak stability conditions on the learning algorithm. Together, these results provide practical, asymptotically-exact…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-03 Pierre Bayle , Alexandre Bayle , Lucas Janson , Lester Mackey

We propose a method for constructing confidence intervals that account for many forms of spatial correlation. The interval has the familiar `estimator plus and minus a standard error times a critical value' form, but we propose new methods…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-02-19 Ulrich K. Müller , Mark W. Watson

Dynamic response of loads has a significant effect on system stability and directly determines the stability margin of the operating point. Inherent uncertainty and natural variability of load models make the stability assessment especially…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-04-15 Hung D. Nguyen , Konstantin Turitsyn

Violation of the assumptions underlying classical (Gaussian) limit theory often yields unreliable statistical inference. This paper shows that the bootstrap can detect such violations by delivering simple and powerful diagnostic tests that…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-09 Giuseppe Cavaliere , Luca Fanelli , Iliyan Georgiev

Heteroskedasticity testing in nonparametric regression is a classic statistical problem with important practical applications, yet fundamental limits are unknown. Adopting a minimax perspective, this article considers the testing problem in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-12-11 Subhodh Kotekal , Soumyabrata Kundu

When performing supervised learning with the model selected using validation error from sample splitting and cross validation, the minimum value of the validation error can be biased downward. We propose two simple methods that use the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-13 Leying Guan

Robustness checks are routine in empirical work, but there is no standard statistical procedure to formally measure what one can learn from them. I propose a "robustness radius" measure to quantify the amount by which the robustness checks…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-24 Brenda Prallon

We consider inference in linear regression models that is robust to heteroskedasticity and the presence of many control variables. When the number of control variables increases at the same rate as the sample size the usual…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-29 Koen Jochmans

We study the problem of robust estimation under heterogeneous corruption rates, where each sample may be independently corrupted with a known but non-identical probability. This setting arises naturally in distributed and federated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-02 Syomantak Chaudhuri , Jerry Li , Thomas A. Courtade

Confidence limits are common place in physics analysis. Great care must be taken in their calculation and use, especially in cases of limited statistics when often one-sided limits are quoted. In order to estimate the stability of the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Rajendran Raja

Estimation of software reliability often poses a considerable challenge, particularly for critical softwares. Several methods of estimation of reliability of software are already available in the literature. But, so far almost nobody used…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2024-06-10 Pallabi Ghosh , Ashis Kr. Chakraborty , Soumen Dey

Multiple hypothesis testing practices vary widely, without consensus on which are appropriate when. This paper provides an economic foundation for these practices designed to capture leading examples, such as regulatory approval on the…

General Economics · Economics 2026-02-19 Davide Viviano , Kaspar Wuthrich , Paul Niehaus

It has recently been discovered that the conclusions of many highly influential econometrics studies can be overturned by removing a very small fraction of their samples (often less than $0.5\%$). These conclusions are typically based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-11 Ittai Rubinstein , Samuel B. Hopkins

Most linear experimental design problems assume homogeneous variance although heteroskedastic noise is present in many realistic settings. Let a learner have access to a finite set of measurement vectors $\mathcal{X}\subset \mathbb{R}^d$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-19 Justin Weltz , Tanner Fiez , Alexander Volfovsky , Eric Laber , Blake Mason , Houssam Nassif , Lalit Jain

Encrypted dynamic controllers that operate for an unlimited time have been a challenging subject of research. The fundamental difficulty is the accumulation of errors and scaling factors in the internal state during operation.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-03-28 Sebastian Schlor , Frank Allgöwer

New tests are developed for two-way ANOVA models with heterogeneous error variances. The testing problems are considered for testing the significant interaction effects, simple effects, and treatment effects. The likelihood ratio tests…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-02 Anjana Mondal , Somesh Kumar

We introduce Harmonic Robustness, a powerful and intuitive method to test the robustness of any machine-learning model either during training or in black-box real-time inference monitoring without ground-truth labels. It is based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-30 Nicholas S. Kersting , Yi Li , Aman Mohanty , Oyindamola Obisesan , Raphael Okochu

In this paper, we are interested in testing if the volatility process is constant or not during a given time span by using high-frequency data with the presence of jumps and microstructure noise. Based on estimators of integrated volatility…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-10-16 Qiang Liu , Zhi Liu , Chuanhai Zhang

Various statistical tests have been developed for testing the equality of means in matched pairs with missing values. However, most existing methods are commonly based on certain distributional assumptions such as normality, 0-symmetry or…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-02 Lubna Amro , Markus Pauly