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The ability to automatically and robustly self-verify periodicity present in time-series astronomical data is becoming more important as data sets rapidly increase in size. The age of large astronomical surveys has rendered manual…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-06-14 Niall Miller , Philip Lucas , Yi Sun , Zhen Guo , Calum Morris , William Cooper

We describe a method to construct directed networks from multivariate time series which has several advantages over the widely accepted methods. This method is based on an information theoretic reduction of linear (auto-regressive) models.…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-08-13 Toshihiro Tanizawa , Tomomichi Nakamura , Fumihiko Taya , Michael Small

Estimating the periodicity of a stationary time series via fitting a second order stationary autoregressive (AR(2)) model has been initiated by the seminal paper of Yule(1927).. We investigate properties of this procedure when applied to a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-01 Jens-Peter Kreiss , Panagiotis Maouris , Efstathios Paparoditis

Time series of individual subjects have become a common data type in psychological research. These data allow one to estimate models of within-subject dynamics, and thereby avoid the notorious problem of making within-subjects inferences…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-16 Jonas M B Haslbeck , Laura F Bringmann , Lourens J Waldorp

This paper addresses the prediction of stationary functional time series. Existing contributions to this problem have largely focused on the special case of first-order functional autoregressive processes because of their technical…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-01 Alexander Aue , Diogo Dubart Norinho , Siegfried Hörmann

In the autoregressive process of first order AR(1), a homogeneous correlated time series $u_t$ is recursively constructed as $u_t = q\; u_{t-1} + \sigma \;\epsilon_t$, using random Gaussian deviates $\epsilon_t$ and fixed values for the…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2014-10-10 Christoph Mark , Claus Metzner , Ben Fabry

Monitoring complex systems results in massive multivariate time series data, and anomaly detection of these data is very important to maintain the normal operation of the systems. Despite the recent emergence of a large number of anomaly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-14 Liwei Deng , Xuanhao Chen , Yan Zhao , Kai Zheng

We demonstrate that extremely rapid and weak periodic and non-periodic signals can easily be detected by using the autocorrelation of intensity as a function of time. We use standard radio-astronomical observations that have artificial…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2018-05-16 Ermanno F. Borra , Jonathan D. Romney , Eric Trottier

The study of X-ray time-lag spectra in active galactic nuclei (AGN) is currently an active research area, since it has the potential to illuminate the physics and geometry of the innermost region (i.e. close to the putative super-massive…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2016-06-29 A. Epitropakis , I. E. Papadakis

There has been an enormous interest in analysing and modelling periodic time series. The research on periodically integrated autoregressive (PIAR) models which capture the periodic structure and the presence of unit roots is widely applied…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-18 Yueyun Zhu , Georgi N. Boshnakov

This paper introduces a Threshold Asymmetric Conditional Autoregressive Range (TACARR) formulation for modeling the daily price ranges of financial assets. It is assumed that the process generating the conditional expected ranges at each…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-03-18 Isuru Ratnayake , V. A. Samaranayake

This article develops the asymptotic distribution of the least squares estimator of the model parameters in periodicvector autoregressive time series models (hereafter PVAR) with uncorrelated but dependent innovations. When theinnovations…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-22 Yacouba Boubacar Maïnassara , Eugen Ursu

The nonlinear vector autoregressive (NVAR) model provides an appealing framework to analyze multivariate time series obtained from a nonlinear dynamical system. However, the innovation (or error), which plays a key role by driving the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-01 Hiroshi Morioka , Hermanni Hälvä , Aapo Hyvärinen

Mixed spatial autoregressive (SAR) models with numerical covariates have been well studied. However, as non-numerical data, such as functional data and compositional data, receive substantial amounts of attention and are applied to…

Applications · Statistics 2018-11-08 Huiwen Wang , Tingting Huang , Shanshan Wang

In the last decades, due to the huge technological growth observed, it has become increasingly common that a collection of temporal data rapidly accumulates in vast amounts. This provides an opportunity for extracting valuable information…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-22 Felipe Elorrieta , Lucas Osses , Matias Cáceres , Susana Eyheramendy , Wilfredo Palma

The detection of periodic signals in irregularly-sampled time series is a problem commonly encountered in astronomy. Traditional tools used for periodic searches, such as the periodogram, have poorly defined statistical properties under…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-01-13 A. Gúrpide , M. Middleton

We consider covariate adjusted regression (CAR), a regression method for situations where predictors and response are observed after being distorted by a multiplicative factor. The distorting factors are unknown functions of an observable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-16 Damla Şentürk , Hans-Georg Müller

Forecasting time series data is a critical area of research with applications spanning from stock prices to early epidemic prediction. While numerous statistical and machine learning methods have been proposed, real-life prediction problems…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-05 Madhurima Panja , Tanujit Chakraborty , Uttam Kumar , Abdenour Hadid

We develop a Bayesian framework for variable selection in linear regression with autocorrelated errors, accommodating lagged covariates and autoregressive structures. This setting occurs in time series applications where responses depend on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-18 Alokesh Manna , Sujit K. Ghosh

We consider a setting where multiple entities inter-act with each other over time and the time-varying statuses of the entities are represented as multiple correlated time series. For example, speed sensors are deployed in different…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-23 Razvan-Gabriel Cirstea , Chenjuan Guo , Bin Yang