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Being able to reliably assess not only the \emph{accuracy} but also the \emph{uncertainty} of models' predictions is an important endeavour in modern machine learning. Even if the model generating the data and labels is known, computing the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-12 Lucas Clarté , Bruno Loureiro , Florent Krzakala , Lenka Zdeborová

We review common situations in Bayesian latent variable models where the prior distribution that a researcher specifies differs from the prior distribution used during estimation. These situations can arise from the positive definite…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-19 Edgar C. Merkle , Oludare Ariyo , Sonja D. Winter , Mauricio Garnier-Villarreal

The remarkable generalization performance of large-scale models has been challenging the conventional wisdom of the statistical learning theory. Although recent theoretical studies have shed light on this behavior in linear models and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-18 Tomoya Wakayama

We consider finite-dimensional Bayesian linear inverse problems with Gaussian priors and additive Gaussian noise models. The goal of this note is to present a simple derivation of the well-known fact that solving the Bayesian D-optimal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-12-27 Alen Alexanderian

Mean-field variational inference is a method for approximate Bayesian posterior inference. It approximates a full posterior distribution with a factorized set of distributions by maximizing a lower bound on the marginal likelihood. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-03 John Paisley , David Blei , Michael Jordan

We study a mean-field spike and slab variational Bayes (VB) approximation to Bayesian model selection priors in sparse high-dimensional linear regression. Under compatibility conditions on the design matrix, oracle inequalities are derived…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-20 Kolyan Ray , Botond Szabo

We investigate Bayes posterior distributions in high-dimensional generalized linear models (GLMs) under the proportional asymptotics regime, where the number of features and samples diverge at a comparable rate. Specifically, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-05 Manuel Sáenz , Pragya Sur

A fully Bayesian approach is proposed for ultrahigh-dimensional nonparametric additive models in which the number of additive components may be larger than the sample size, though ideally the true model is believed to include only a small…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-09-24 Zuofeng Shang , Ping Li

The Poisson model is frequently employed to describe count data, but in a Bayesian context it leads to an analytically intractable posterior probability distribution. In this work, we analyze a variational Gaussian approximation to the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-02-14 Simon Arridge , Kazufumi Ito , Bangti Jin , Chen Zhang

For Bayesian D-optimal design, we define a singular prior distribution for the model parameters as a prior distribution such that the determinant of the Fisher information matrix has a prior geometric mean of zero for all designs. For such…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-13 Timothy W. Waite

Considering the flexibility and applicability of Bayesian modeling, in this work we revise the main characteristics of two hierarchical models in a regression setting. We study the full probabilistic structure of the models along with the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-22 Juan Sosa , Jeimy Aristizabal

Variational inference has become an increasingly attractive fast alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for approximate Bayesian inference. However, a major obstacle to the widespread use of variational methods is the lack of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-03 Jonathan H. Huggins , Mikołaj Kasprzak , Trevor Campbell , Tamara Broderick

Ising models originated in statistical physics and are widely used in modeling spatial data and computer vision problems. However, statistical inference of this model remains challenging due to intractable nature of the normalizing constant…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-06 Minwoo Kim , Shrijita Bhattacharya , Tapabrata Maiti

Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-28 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Tatsuya Kubokawa

Spike-and-slab priors are popular Bayesian solutions for high-dimensional linear regression problems. Previous theoretical studies on spike-and-slab methods focus on specific prior formulations and use prior-dependent conditions and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-14 Bai Jiang , Qiang Sun

We study the stability of posterior predictive inferences to the specification of the likelihood model and perturbations of the data generating process. In modern big data analyses, useful broad structural judgements may be elicited from…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-30 Jack Jewson , Jim Q. Smith , Chris Holmes

Multiple imputation has become one of the standard methods in drawing inferences in many incomplete data applications. Applications of multiple imputation in relatively more complex settings, such as high-dimensional clustered data, require…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-08 Qiushuang Li , Recai Yucel

There is a growing interest in learning how the distribution of a response variable changes with a set of predictors. Bayesian nonparametric dependent mixture models provide a flexible approach to address this goal. However, several…

Computation · Statistics 2020-05-06 Tommaso Rigon , Daniele Durante

In this manuscript, we study the problem of scalar-on-distribution regression; that is, instances where subject-specific distributions or densities, or in practice, repeated measures from those distributions, are the covariates related to a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-22 Bohao Tang , Sandipan Pramanik , Yi Zhao , Brian Caffo , Abhirup Datta

The Na\"ive Mean Field (NMF) approximation is widely employed in modern Machine Learning due to the huge computational gains it bestows on the statistician. Despite its popularity in practice, theoretical guarantees for high-dimensional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-17 Jiaze Qiu