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A key building block in the design of ultra-reliable communication systems is a wireless channel model that captures the statistics of rare events occurring due to significant fading. In this paper, we propose a novel methodology based on…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-01-12 Niloofar Mehrnia , Sinem Coleri

Attaining ultra-reliable communication (URC) in fifth-generation (5G) and beyond networks requires deriving statistics of channel in ultra-reliable region by modeling the extreme events. Extreme value theory (EVT) has been previously…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-01-12 Niloofar Mehrnia , Sinem Coleri

Estimating the probability of rare channel conditions is a central challenge in ultra-reliable wireless communication, where random events, such as deep fades, can cause sudden variations in the channel quality. This paper proposes a…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-07-08 Tobias Kallehauge , Anders E. Kalør , Pablo Ramírez-Espinosa , Christophe Biscio , Petar Popovski

Ultra-reliable low latency communication (URLLC) requires the packet error rate to be on the order of $10^{-9}$-$10^{-5}$. Determining the appropriate transmission rate to satisfy this ultra-reliability constraint requires deriving the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-01-12 Niloofar Mehrnia , Sinem Coleri

Proper determination of the transmission rate in ultra-reliable low latency communication (URLLC) needs to incorporate a confidence interval (CI) for the estimated parameters due to the large amount of data required for their accurate…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-01-12 Niloofar Mehrnia , Sinem Coleri

Diversity schemes play a vital role in improving the performance of ultra-reliable communication systems by transmitting over two or more communication channels to combat fading and co-channel interference. Determining an appropriate…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-01-12 Niloofar Mehrnia , Sinem Coleri

Ultra-reliable and low-latency communication (URLLC) will play a key role in fifth-generation (5G) and beyond networks, enabling mission-critical applications. Meeting the stringent URLLC requirements, characterized by extremely low packet…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-29 Parmida Valiahdi , Niloofar Mehrnia , Walid Saad , Sinem Coleri

Ultra-reliable low-latency communications (URLLC) require innovative approaches to modeling channel and interference dynamics, extending beyond traditional average estimates to encompass entire statistical distributions, including rare and…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-01-22 Fateme Salehi , Aamir Mahmood , Sinem Coleri , Mikael Gidlund

Conventional methods for extreme event estimation rely on well-chosen parametric models asymptotically justified from extreme value theory (EVT). These methods, while powerful and theoretically grounded, could however encounter a difficult…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-05 Yuanlu Bai , Henry Lam , Xinyu Zhang

We aim to analyze the behaviour of a finite-time stochastic system, whose model is not available, in the context of more rare and harmful outcomes. Standard estimators are not effective in making predictions about such outcomes due to their…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-29 Evan Arsenault , Yuheng Wang , Margaret P. Chapman

Machine learning is vital in high-stakes domains, yet conventional validation methods rely on averaging metrics like mean squared error (MSE) or mean absolute error (MAE), which fail to quantify extreme errors. Worst-case prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Umberto Michelucci , Francesca Venturini

This paper introduces a sophisticated and adaptable framework combining extreme value theory with radio maps to spatially model extreme channel conditions accurately. Utilising existing signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) measurements and…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2024-04-09 Dian Echevarría Pérez , Onel L. Alcaraz López , Hirley Alves

Extreme value theory (EVT) is a statistical tool for analysis of extreme events. It has a strong theoretical background, however, we need to choose hyper-parameters to apply EVT. In recent studies of machine learning, techniques of choosing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-14 Chikara Nakamura

Accurate prediction of traffic crash risks for individual vehicles is essential for enhancing vehicle safety. While significant attention has been given to traffic crash risk prediction, existing studies face two main challenges: First, due…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-07 Kequan Chen , Pan Liu , Yuxuan Wang , David Z. W. Wang , Yifan Dai , Zhibin Li

Accurate estimation of the frequency and magnitude of successive extreme events in energy demand is critical for strategic resource planning. Traditional approaches based on extreme value theory (EVT) are typically limited to modelling…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-10 Grace Burtenshaw , Joe Lane , Meagan Carney

Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is one of the most commonly used approaches in finance for measuring the downside risk of investment portfolios, especially during financial crises. In this paper, we propose a novel approach based on EVT called…

General Economics · Economics 2020-11-16 Hamidreza Arian , Hossein Poorvasei , Azin Sharifi , Shiva Zamani

We study distributional robustness in the context of Extreme Value Theory (EVT). We provide a data-driven method for estimating extreme quantiles in a manner that is robust against incorrect model assumptions underlying the application of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-09 Jose Blanchet , Fei He , Karthyek R. A. Murthy

We present a generic approximation of the packet error rate (PER) function of uncoded schemes in the AWGN channel using extreme value theory (EVT). The PER function can assume both the exponential and the Gaussian Q-function bit error rate…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-10-19 Aamir Mahmood , Riku Jäntti

Promising technologies such as massive multiple-input and multiple-output, reconfigurable intelligent reflecting surfaces, non-terrestrial networks, millimetre wave communication, ultra-reliable lowlatency communication are envisioned as…

Causal effect estimation seeks to determine the impact of an intervention from observational data. However, the existing causal inference literature primarily addresses treatment effects on frequently occurring events. But what if we are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-18 Jiyuan Tan , Jose Blanchet , Vasilis Syrgkanis
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