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Our goal is to estimate causal interactions in multivariate time series. Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models, these can be defined based on non-vanishing coefficients belonging to respective time-lagged instances. As in most cases a…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-08-13 Stefan Haufe , Guido Nolte , Klaus-Robert Mueller , Nicole Kraemer

The availability of data on economic uncertainty sparked a lot of interest in models that can timely quantify episodes of international spillovers of uncertainty. This challenging task involves trading off estimation accuracy for more…

General Economics · Economics 2023-02-07 Niels Gillmann , Ostap Okhrin

In this paper, we consider the time-inhomogeneous nonlinear time series regression for a general class of locally stationary time series. On one hand, we propose sieve nonparametric estimators for the time-varying regression functions which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-17 Xiucai Ding , Zhou Zhou

The least-squares support vector machine is a frequently used kernel method for non-linear regression and classification tasks. Here we discuss several approximation algorithms for the least-squares support vector machine classifier. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-03-24 M. Andrecut

A class of multivariate periodic autoregressive models is proposed where coupling between time series is achieved through linear mean functions. Various response distributions with quadratic mean-variance relationships fit into the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-18 Johannes Bracher , Leonhard Held

We introduce a novel \textit{k}-nearest neighbor (\textit{k}-NN) regression method for joint estimation of the conditional mean and variance. The proposed algorithm preserves the computational efficiency and manifold-learning capabilities…

In this paper, we derive (local) orthogonality graphs for the popular continuous-time state space models, including in particular multivariate continuous-time ARMA (MCARMA) processes. In these (local) orthogonality graphs, vertices…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-14 Vicky Fasen-Hartmann , Lea Schenk

We consider the estimation problem for jointly stable random variables. Under two specific dependency models: a linear transformation of two independent stable variables and a sub-Gaussian symmetric $\alpha$-stable (S$\alpha$S) vector, we…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-01-15 Rayan Chouity , Charbel Hannoun , Jihad Fahs , Ibrahim Abou-Faycal

We propose a multiscale approach to time series autoregression, in which linear regressors for the process in question include features of its own path that live on multiple timescales. We take these multiscale features to be the recent…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-17 Rafal Baranowski , Yining Chen , Piotr Fryzlewicz

In this paper, we study a notion of local stationarity for discrete time Markov chains which is useful for applications in statistics. In the spirit of some locally stationary processes introduced in the literature, we consider triangular…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-06 Lionel Truquet

We develop a Recursive $\mathcal{L}_1$-Regularized Least Squares (SPARLS) algorithm for the estimation of a sparse tap-weight vector in the adaptive filtering setting. The SPARLS algorithm exploits noisy observations of the tap-weight…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2009-01-08 Behtash Babadi , Nicholas Kalouptsidis , Vahid Tarokh

We consider a complex-valued linear mixture model, under discrete weakly stationary processes. We recover latent components of interest, which have undergone a linear mixing. We study asymptotic properties of a classical unmixing estimator,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-12 Niko Lietzén , Lauri Viitasaari , Pauliina Ilmonen

This chapter describes componentwise Least Squares Support Vector Machines (LS-SVMs) for the estimation of additive models consisting of a sum of nonlinear components. The primal-dual derivations characterizing LS-SVMs for the estimation of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Kristiaan Pelckmans , Ivan Goethals , Jos De Brabanter , Johan A. K. Suykens , Bart De Moor

Assuming stationarity is unrealistic in many time series applications. A more realistic alternative is to allow for piecewise stationarity, where the model is allowed to change at given time points. In this article, the problem of detecting…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-10 Abolfazl Safikhani , Ali Shojaie

We propose a nonparametric bivariate time-varying coefficient model for longitudinal measurements with the occurrence of a terminal event that is subject to right censoring. The time-varying coefficients capture the longitudinal…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-10 Yue Wang , Bin Nan , Jack D. Kalbfleisch

The problem of test of fit for Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) processes with unconditionally heteroscedastic errors is studied. The volatility structure is deterministic but time-varying and allows for changes that are commonly observed in…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-19 Valentin Patilea , Hamdi Raïssi

LSST is expected to yield ~10^7 light curves over the course of its mission, which will require a concerted effort in automated classification. Stochastic processes provide one means of quantitatively describing variability with the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2017-04-26 J. C. Zinn , C. S. Kochanek , S. Kozłowski , A. Udalski , M. K. Szymański , I. Soszyński , Ł. Wyrzykowski , K. Ulaczyk , R. Poleski , P. Pietrukowicz , J. Skowron , P. Mróz , M. Pawlak

Recent advance on linear support vector machine with the 0-1 soft margin loss ($L_{0/1}$-SVM) shows that the 0-1 loss problem can be solved directly. However, its theoretical and algorithmic requirements restrict us extending the linear…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-02 Ju Liu , Ling-Wei Huang , Yuan-Hai Shao , Wei-Jie Chen , Chun-Na Li

In this paper, we consider the Whittle estimator for the parameters of a stationary solution of a continuous-time linear state space model sampled at low frequencies. In our context the driving process is a L\'evy process which allows…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-24 Vicky Fasen-Hartmann , Celeste Mayer

Support vector machine (SVM) is a particularly powerful and flexible supervised learning model that analyzes data for both classification and regression, whose usual algorithm complexity scales polynomially with the dimension of data space…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-08 Chen Ding , Tian-Yi Bao , He-Liang Huang