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We study a model of a population making a binary decision based on information spreading within the population, which is fully connected or covering a square grid. We assume that a fraction of the population wants to make the choice of the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-05-24 Petter Holme , Hang-Hyun Jo

Cognitive biases are widespread in humans and animals alike, and can sometimes be reinforced by social interactions. One prime bias in judgment and decision-making is the human tendency to underestimate large quantities. Previous research…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-01-12 Bertrand Jayles , Clément Sire , Ralf H. J. M Kurvers

Does talking to others make people more accurate or less accurate on numeric estimates such as quantitative evaluations or probabilistic forecasts? Research on peer-to-peer communication suggests that discussion between people will usually…

General Economics · Economics 2025-05-01 Charlie Pilgrim , Joshua Becker

The provision of information can improve individual judgments but also fail to make group decisions more accurate; if individuals choose to attend to the same information in the same manner, the predictive diversity that enables crowd…

General Economics · Economics 2025-12-29 Jon Atwell , Marlon Twyman

The digital spread of misinformation is one of the leading threats to democracy, public health, and the global economy. Popular strategies for mitigating misinformation include crowdsourcing, machine learning, and media literacy programs…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-06-09 Douglas Guilbeault , Samuel Woolley , Joshua Becker

We analyze the accuracy of collective decision-making in socially connected populations, where agents update binary choices through local interactions on a network. Each agent receives a private signal that is biased -- even marginally --…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-29 Dan Braha , Marcus A. M. de Aguiar

Recommender systems recommend objects regardless of potential adverse effects of their overcrowding. We address this shortcoming by introducing crowd-avoiding recommendation where each object can be shared by only a limited number of users…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-06-18 Stanislao Gualdi , Matus Medo , Yi-Cheng Zhang

In our digital and connected societies, the development of social networks, online shopping, and reputation systems raises the question of how individuals use social information, and how it affects their decisions. We report experiments…

Crowds can often make better decisions than individuals or small groups of experts by leveraging their ability to aggregate diverse information. Question answering sites, such as Stack Exchange, rely on the "wisdom of crowds" effect to…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2017-04-04 Keith Burghardt , Emanuel F. Alsina , Michelle Girvan , William Rand , Kristina Lerman

"Wisdom of crowds" refers to the phenomenon that the average opinion of a group of individuals on a given question can be very close to the true answer. It requires a large group diversity of opinions, but the collective error, the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-02-03 Pavlin Mavrodiev , Frank Schweitzer

The recent developments of social networks and recommender systems have dramatically increased the amount of social information shared in human communities, challenging the human ability to process it. As a result, sharing aggregated forms…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-01-12 Bertrand Jayles , Clément Sire , Ralf H. J. M Kurvers

A major problem that resulted from the massive use of social media networks is the diffusion of incorrect information. However, very few studies have investigated the impact of incorrect information on individual and collective decisions.…

Crowd-sourcing deals with solving problems by assigning them to a large number of non-experts called crowd using their spare time. In these systems, the final answer to the question is determined by summing up the votes obtained from the…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-07-04 Samin Nili Ahmadabadi , Maryam Haghifam , Vahid Shah-Mansouri , Sara Ershadmanesh

Every day, we judge the probability of propositions. When we communicate graded confidence (e.g. "I am 90% sure"), we enable others to gauge how much weight to attach to our judgment. Ideally, people should share their judgments to reach…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-01-10 Patrick Stinson , Jasper van den Bosch , Trenton Jerde , Nikolaus Kriegeskorte

Consider n individuals who, by popular vote, choose among q >= 2 alternatives, one of which is "better" than the others. Assume that each individual votes independently at random, and that the probability of voting for the better…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-11-25 Elchanan Mossel , Joe Neeman , Omer Tamuz

We explore the design of an effective crowdsourcing system for an $M$-ary classification task. Crowd workers complete simple binary microtasks whose results are aggregated to give the final classification decision. We consider the scenario…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2017-04-05 Qunwei Li , Pramod K. Varshney

Online discussion threads are important means for individual decision-making and for aggregating collective judgments, e.g. the `wisdom of crowds'. Empirical investigations of the wisdom of crowds are currently ambivalent about the role…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-03-15 Robin Engelhardt , Vincent F. Hendricks , Jacob Stærk-Østergaard

Crowdsourcing is a mechanism by means of which groups of people are able to execute a task by sharing ideas, efforts and resources. Thanks to the online technologies, crowdsourcing has become in the last decade an even more utilized process…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-03-16 Daniele Vilone

Microtask crowdsourcing has enabled dataset advances in social science and machine learning, but existing crowdsourcing schemes are too expensive to scale up with the expanding volume of data. To scale and widen the applicability of…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2016-02-16 Ranjay Krishna , Kenji Hata , Stephanie Chen , Joshua Kravitz , David A. Shamma , Li Fei-Fei , Michael S. Bernstein

Crowdsourcing is an easy, cheap, and fast way to perform large scale quality assessment; however, human judgments are often influenced by cognitive biases, which lowers their credibility. In this study, we focus on cognitive biases…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-07-30 Shun Ito , Hisashi Kashima
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