Related papers: Viking: Variational Bayesian Variance Tracking
Accurate prediction of future agent trajectories is a critical challenge for ensuring safe and efficient autonomous navigation, particularly in complex urban environments characterized by multiple plausible future scenarios. In this paper,…
We quantify the performance of approximations to stochastic filtering by the Kullback-Leibler divergence to the optimal Bayesian filter. Using a two-state Markov process that drives a Brownian measurement process as prototypical test case,…
Variational inference techniques based on inducing variables provide an elegant framework for scalable posterior estimation in Gaussian process (GP) models. Besides enabling scalability, one of their main advantages over sparse…
Recent lightweight MLP-based models have achieved strong performance in time series forecasting by capturing stable trends and seasonal patterns. However, their effectiveness hinges on an implicit assumption of local stationarity…
Latent variable models are crucial in scientific research, where a key variable, such as effort, ability, and belief, is unobserved in the sample but needs to be identified. This paper proposes a novel method for estimating realizations of…
Often in machine learning, data are collected as a combination of multiple conditions, e.g., the voice recordings of multiple persons, each labeled with an ID. How could we build a model that captures the latent information related to these…
This paper proposes a variational Bayes algorithm for computationally efficient posterior and predictive inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) models. Within this context we specify a new dynamic variable/model selection strategy for…
In discriminative settings such as regression and classification there are two random variables at play, the inputs X and the targets Y. Here, we demonstrate that the Variational Information Bottleneck can be viewed as a compromise between…
Optimal data detection in massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems often requires prohibitively high computational complexity. A variety of detection algorithms have been proposed in the literature, offering different…
In this paper, the problem of state estimation, in the context of both filtering and smoothing, for nonlinear state-space models is considered. Due to the nonlinear nature of the models, the state estimation problem is generally intractable…
The cumulative shrinkage process is an increasing shrinkage prior that can be employed within models in which additional terms are supposed to play a progressively negligible role. A natural application is to Gaussian factor models, where…
Variational system identification is a new formulation of maximum likelihood for estimation of parameters of dynamical systems subject to process and measurement noise, such as aircraft flying in turbulence. This formulation is an…
We develop a Bayesian framework for variable selection in linear regression with autocorrelated errors, accommodating lagged covariates and autoregressive structures. This setting occurs in time series applications where responses depend on…
Invariant prediction [Peters et al., 2016] analyzes feature/outcome data from multiple environments to identify invariant features - those with a stable predictive relationship to the outcome. Such features support generalization to new…
We look at a stochastic time-varying optimization problem and we formulate online algorithms to find and track its optimizers in expectation. The algorithms are derived from the intuition that standard prediction and correction steps can be…
A major limitation of online algorithms that track the optimizers of time-varying nonconvex optimization problems is that they focus on a specific local minimum trajectory, which may lead to poor spurious local solutions. In this paper, we…
We consider the problem of modeling multivariate time series with parsimonious dynamical models which can be represented as sparse dynamic Bayesian networks with few latent nodes. This structure translates into a sparse plus low rank model.…
Bayesian (deep) neural networks (BNN) are often more attractive than the vanilla point-estimate deep learning in various aspects including uncertainty quantification, robustness to noise, resistance to overfitting, and more. The variational…
We consider the linearly transformed spiked model, where observations $Y_i$ are noisy linear transforms of unobserved signals of interest $X_i$: \begin{align*} Y_i = A_i X_i + \varepsilon_i, \end{align*} for $i=1,\ldots,n$. The transform…
We develop a supervised machine learning model that detects anomalies in systems in real time. Our model processes unbounded streams of data into time series which then form the basis of a low-latency anomaly detection model. Moreover, we…