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Recent years have experienced increasing utilization of complex machine learning models across multiple sources of data to inform more generalizable decision-making. However, distribution shifts across data sources and privacy concerns…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-16 Yi Liu , Alexander W. Levis , Sharon-Lise Normand , Larry Han

Accurate uncertainty estimates are important in sequential model-based decision-making tasks such as Bayesian optimization. However, these estimates can be imperfect if the data violates assumptions made by the model (e.g., Gaussianity).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-27 Shachi Deshpande , Charles Marx , Volodymyr Kuleshov

Applied researchers in biomedicine and related fields are often interested in estimating the causal effect of a treatment or intervention. Although randomized clinical trials are considered the gold standard for establishing causal effects,…

When facing uncertainty, decision-makers want predictions they can trust. A machine learning provider can convey confidence to decision-makers by guaranteeing their predictions are distribution calibrated -- amongst the inputs that receive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-14 Shengjia Zhao , Michael P. Kim , Roshni Sahoo , Tengyu Ma , Stefano Ermon

We consider an adaptive finite element method with arbitrary but fixed polynomial degree $p \ge 1$, where adaptivity is driven by an edge-based residual error estimator. Based on the modified maximum criterion from [Diening et al, Found.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-01-29 Michael Innerberger , Dirk Praetorius

In randomized clinical trials, adjustments for baseline covariates at both design and analysis stages are highly encouraged by regulatory agencies. A recent trend is to use a model-assisted approach for covariate adjustment to gain…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-14 Ting Ye , Jun Shao , Yanyao Yi , Qingyuan Zhao

When studying the association between treatment and a clinical outcome, a parametric multivariable model of the conditional outcome expectation is often used to adjust for covariates. The treatment coefficient of the outcome model targets a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-07 Antonio Remiro-Azócar , Anna Heath , Gianluca Baio

Alignment with human preferences is commonly framed using a universal reward function, even though human preferences are inherently heterogeneous. We formalize this heterogeneity by introducing user types and examine the limits of the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Ali Shirali , Arash Nasr-Esfahany , Abdullah Alomar , Parsa Mirtaheri , Rediet Abebe , Ariel Procaccia

High-resolution estimates of population health indicators are critical for precision public health. We propose a method for high-resolution estimation that fuses distinct data sources: an unbiased, low-resolution data source (e.g.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-21 Amy Guan , Marissa Reitsma , Roshni Sahoo , Joshua Salomon , Stefan Wager

We consider adaptive decision-making problems where an agent optimizes a cumulative performance objective by repeatedly choosing among a finite set of options. Compared to the classical prediction-with-expert-advice set-up, we consider…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-10 Michael Muehlebach

Studies often estimate associations between an outcome and multiple variates. For example, studies of diagnostic test accuracy estimate sensitivity and specificity, and studies of predictive and prognostic factors typically estimate…

For effective decision support in scenarios with conflicting objectives, sets of potentially optimal solutions can be presented to the decision maker. We explore both what policies these sets should contain and how such sets can be computed…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-07-19 Willem Röpke , Conor F. Hayes , Patrick Mannion , Enda Howley , Ann Nowé , Diederik M. Roijers

We investigate a data-driven quasiconcave maximization problem where information about the objective function is limited to a finite sample of data points. We begin by defining an ambiguity set for admissible objective functions based on…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Jian Wu , William B. Haskell , Wenjie Huang , Huifu Xu

Most causal inference methods focus on estimating marginal average treatment effects, but many important causal estimands depend on the joint distribution of potential outcomes, including the probability of causation and proportions…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-16 Zach Shahn , David Madigan

This paper deals with solving distributed optimization problems with equality constraints by a class of uncertain nonlinear heterogeneous dynamic multi-agent systems. It is assumed that each agent with an uncertain dynamic model has limited…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-06-28 Mohammad Saeed Sarafraz , Mohammad Saleh Tavazoei

External information, such as prior information or expert opinions, can play an important role in the design, analysis and interpretation of clinical trials. However, little attention has been devoted thus far to incorporating external…

Applications · Statistics 2013-04-24 Minge Xie , Regina Y. Liu , C. V. Damaraju , William H. Olson

In this paper we deal with stochastic optimization problems where the data distributions change in response to the decision variables. Traditionally, the study of optimization problems with decision-dependent distributions has assumed…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-10-05 Zifan Wang , Changxin Liu , Thomas Parisini , Michael M. Zavlanos , Karl H. Johansson

We study a class of two-stage stochastic programs, namely, those with fixed recourse matrix and fixed costs, and linear second stage. We show that, under mild assumptions, the problem can be solved with just one scenario, which we call an…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-29 Tito Homem-de-Mello , Juan Valencia , Felipe Lagos , Guido Lagos

Many observational studies and clinical trials collect various secondary outcomes that may be highly correlated with the primary endpoint. These secondary outcomes are often analyzed in secondary analyses separately from the main data…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-08 Chixiang Chen , Ming Wang , Shuo Chen

We study a counterfactual mean-variance optimization, where the mean and variance are defined as functionals of counterfactual distributions. The optimization problem defines the optimal resource allocation under various constraints in a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-15 Kwangho Kim , Alan Mishler , José R. Zubizarreta