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The successful prediction of earthquakes is one of the holy grails in Earth Sciences. Traditional predictions use statistical information on recurrence intervals, but those predictions are not accurate enough. In a recent paper, a machine…

Geophysics · Physics 2020-11-16 Silke van Klaveren , Ivan Vasconcelos , Andre Niemeijer

In the presented paper the possible methods of the large earthquake prediction are offered. During the study, it was used data of the INFREP (European Network of Electromagnetic Radiation) existent before earthquake. The elaborated methods…

As an object of study, we chose the global activity of strong earthquakes (M > 7). The subject of the study is the waiting time for the next strong earthquake. The purpose of the study is to compare two distributions of waiting time, one of…

Geophysics · Physics 2022-09-02 A. V. Guglielmi , O. D. Zotov

Forecasts of the focal mechanisms of future earthquakes are important for seismic hazard estimates and Coulomb stress and other models of earthquake occurrence. Here we report on a high-resolution global forecast of earthquake rate density…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-06-17 Yan Y. Kagan , David D. Jackson

Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-06-04 Randall D. Peters , Martine Le Berre , Yves Pomeau

Physical phenomena observed before strong earthquake have been reported over centuries. Radon anomalies, electrical signals, water level changes, earthquake lights near the epicenter are recognized as pre-earthquake signals to approach…

Geophysics · Physics 2020-10-27 Tao Chen , Lei Li , Xiao-Xin Zhang , Qi-Ming Ma , Shuo Ti , Han Wu

We test the concept that seismicity prior to a large earthquake can be understood in terms of the statistical physics of a critical phase transition. In this model, the cumulative seismic strain release increases as a power-law…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-25 D. D. Bowman , G. Ouillon , C. G. Sammis , A. Sornette , D. Sornette

The starting point of the present review is to acknowledge that there are innumerable reports of non-seismic types of earthquake precursory phenomena that are intermittent and seem not to occur systematically, while associated reports are…

Geophysics · Physics 2017-11-07 Friedemann Freund , Guy Ouillon , John Scoville , Didier Sornette

Forecasting the full distribution of the number of earthquakes is revealed to be inherently superior to forecasting their mean. Forecasting the full distribution of earthquake numbers is also shown to yield robust projections in the…

Geophysics · Physics 2019-03-19 Shyam Nandan , Guy Ouillon , Didier Sornette , Stefan Wiemer

The reliable statistical characterization of the spatial and temporal properties of large earthquakes occurrence is one of the most debated issues in seismic hazard assessment, due to the unavoidably limited observations from past events.…

The paper represents the VLF/LF electromagnetic radiation as the earthquake's true precursor. It is shown that this parameter is capable of describing the fault formative process in the focal area. Besides, VLF/LF electromagnetic radiation…

Geophysics · Physics 2022-05-16 Manana Kachakhidze , Nino Kachakhidze-Murphy

We develop and implement a new type of global earthquake forecast. Our forecast is a perturbation on a smoothed seismicity (Relative Intensity) spatial forecast combined with a temporal time-averaged (Poisson) forecast. A variety of…

Geophysics · Physics 2013-07-23 James R Holliday , William R Graves , John B Rundle , Donald L Turcotte

It is given an attempt for statistical estimation of when earthquake prediction for Balkan- Black Sea region using the geomagnetic field signal. The preliminary test of the approach for England (Hartland), Turkey (Kandilli) and India…

Geophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 Strachimir Chterev Mavrodiev

it has been given scientifically proven suggestions for the classification of earthquake precursor, indicator, and triggering factors.

Earthquakes can be detected by matching spatial patterns or phase properties from 1-D seismic waves. Current earthquake detection methods, such as waveform correlation and template matching, have difficulty detecting anomalous earthquakes…

Geophysics · Physics 2019-01-30 Zheng Zhou , Youzuo Lin , Zhongping Zhang , Yue Wu , Paul Johnson

We propose a new method to test the effectiveness of a spatial point process forecast based on a log-likelihood score for predicted point density and the information gain for events that actually occurred in the test period. The method…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2010-11-24 Yan Y. Kagan

Statistical tests of earthquake predictions require a null hypothesis to model occasional chance successes. To define and quantify `chance success' is knotty. Some null hypotheses ascribe chance to the Earth: Seismicity is modeled as…

Applications · Statistics 2022-09-21 Brad Luen , Philip B. Stark

Earthquakes are measured using well defined seismic parameters such as seismic moment (Mo), moment magnitude (Mw), and released elastic energy(E). How this tremendous amount of energy is accumulated silently deep inside the earth's crust?…

Geophysics · Physics 2020-11-03 Atanu Das

In the present paper we have conducted studies on seismological properties using worldwide data of deep earthquakes (depth larger than 70 km), considering events with magnitude $m \geq 4.5$. We have addressed the problem under the…

We examine the precursory behavior of geoelectric signals before large earthquakes by means of an algorithm including an alarm-based model and binary classification. This algorithm, introduced originally by Chen and Chen [Nat. Hazards., 84,…

Geophysics · Physics 2019-07-15 Hong-Jia Chen , Chien-Chih Chen , Guy Ouillon , Didier Sornette