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The earth system is exceedingly complex and often chaotic in nature, making prediction incredibly challenging: we cannot expect to make perfect predictions all of the time. Instead, we look for specific states of the system that lead to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-05 Elizabeth A. Barnes , Randal J. Barnes

Despite the power of deep neural networks for a wide range of tasks, an overconfident prediction issue has limited their practical use in many safety-critical applications. Many recent works have been proposed to mitigate this issue, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-14 Jooyoung Moon , Jihyo Kim , Younghak Shin , Sangheum Hwang

Selective classification allows models to abstain from making predictions (e.g., say "I don't know") when in doubt in order to obtain better effective accuracy. While typical selective models can be effective at producing more accurate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-24 Adam Fisch , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

Although neural networks (especially deep neural networks) have achieved \textit{better-than-human} performance in many fields, their real-world deployment is still questionable due to the lack of awareness about the limitation in their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-12 Mehedi Hasan , Moloud Abdar , Abbas Khosravi , Uwe Aickelin , Pietro Lio' , Ibrahim Hossain , Ashikur Rahman , Saeid Nahavandi

Despite remarkable progress made in natural language processing, even the state-of-the-art models often make incorrect predictions. Such predictions hamper the reliability of systems and limit their widespread adoption in real-world…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-05-04 Neeraj Varshney , Chitta Baral

Deep neural networks are powerful tools to detect hidden patterns in data and leverage them to make predictions, but they are not designed to understand uncertainty and estimate reliable probabilities. In particular, they tend to be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-10 Bat-Sheva Einbinder , Yaniv Romano , Matteo Sesia , Yanfei Zhou

The inability of artificial neural networks to assess the uncertainty of their predictions is an impediment to their widespread use. We distinguish two types of learnable uncertainty: model uncertainty due to a lack of training data and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Hans Weytjens , Jochen De Weerdt

We study the key framework of learning with abstention in the multi-class classification setting. In this setting, the learner can choose to abstain from making a prediction with some pre-defined cost. We present a series of new theoretical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-02 Anqi Mao , Mehryar Mohri , Yutao Zhong

Artificial neural networks will always make a prediction, even when completely uncertain and regardless of the consequences. This obliviousness of uncertainty is a major obstacle towards their adoption in practice. Techniques exist,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-13 Hans Weytjens , Jochen De Weerdt

The deployment of pre-trained perception models in novel environments often leads to performance degradation due to distributional shifts. Although recent artificial intelligence approaches for metacognition use logical rules to…

Abstaining classifiers have the option to refrain from providing a prediction for instances that are difficult to classify. The abstention mechanism is designed to trade off the classifier's performance on the accepted data while ensuring a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Daphne Lenders , Andrea Pugnana , Roberto Pellungrini , Toon Calders , Dino Pedreschi , Fosca Giannotti

We introduce a novel framework of ranking with abstention, where the learner can abstain from making prediction at some limited cost $c$. We present a extensive theoretical analysis of this framework including a series of $H$-consistency…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-06 Anqi Mao , Mehryar Mohri , Yutao Zhong

Modern neural networks are very powerful predictive models, but they are often incapable of recognizing when their predictions may be wrong. Closely related to this is the task of out-of-distribution detection, where a network must…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-15 Terrance DeVries , Graham W. Taylor

Refraining from confidently predicting when faced with categories of inputs different from those seen during training is an important requirement for the safe deployment of deep learning systems. While simple to state, this has been a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-18 Sunil Thulasidasan , Sushil Thapa , Sayera Dhaubhadel , Gopinath Chennupati , Tanmoy Bhattacharya , Jeff Bilmes

Multi-horizon time-series forecasting involves simultaneously making predictions for a consecutive sequence of subsequent time steps. This task arises in many application domains, such as healthcare and finance, where mispredictions can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Luca Stradiotti , Laurens Devos , Anna Monreale , Jesse Davis , Andrea Pugnana

The performance of deep neural networks improves with more annotated data. The problem is that the budget for annotation is limited. One solution to this is active learning, where a model asks human to annotate data that it perceived as…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-05-10 Donggeun Yoo , In So Kweon

Deep neural networks are often ignorant about what they do not know and overconfident when they make uninformed predictions. Some recent approaches quantify classification uncertainty directly by training the model to output high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Murat Sensoy , Lance Kaplan , Federico Cerutti , Maryam Saleki

We propose a learning-based robust predictive control algorithm that compensates for significant uncertainty in the dynamics for a class of discrete-time systems that are nominally linear with an additive nonlinear component. Such systems…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-12-05 Rohan Sinha , James Harrison , Spencer M. Richards , Marco Pavone

Classification with abstention has gained a lot of attention in recent years as it allows to incorporate human decision-makers in the process. Yet, abstention can potentially amplify disparities and lead to discriminatory predictions. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-25 Nicolas Schreuder , Evgenii Chzhen

Prediction with the possibility of abstention (or selective prediction) is an important problem for error-critical machine learning applications. While well-studied in the classification setup, selective approaches to regression are much…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-29 Fedor Noskov , Alexander Fishkov , Maxim Panov
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