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Related papers: Uncertainty Surrogates for Deep Learning

200 papers

Reliably assessing model confidence in deep learning and predicting errors likely to be made are key elements in providing safety for model deployment, in particular for applications with dire consequences. In this paper, it is first shown…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-21 Theodoros Tsiligkaridis

Characterizing uncertainty is a common issue in nuclear measurement and has important implications for reliable physical discovery. Traditional methods are either insufficient to cope with the heterogeneous nature of uncertainty or…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-03-01 Pengcheng Ai , Zhi Deng , Yi Wang , Chendi Shen

We show that training a deep network using batch normalization is equivalent to approximate inference in Bayesian models. We further demonstrate that this finding allows us to make meaningful estimates of the model uncertainty using…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-17 Mattias Teye , Hossein Azizpour , Kevin Smith

Solving optimization problems with unknown parameters often requires learning a predictive model to predict the values of the unknown parameters and then solving the problem using these values. Recent work has shown that including the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-23 Kai Wang , Bryan Wilder , Andrew Perrault , Milind Tambe

Bayesian neural networks and deep ensembles represent two modern paradigms of uncertainty quantification in deep learning. Yet these approaches struggle to scale mainly due to memory inefficiency issues, since they require parameter storage…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-24 Hippolyt Ritter , Martin Kukla , Cheng Zhang , Yingzhen Li

The quantification of uncertainties of computer simulations due to input parameter uncertainties is paramount to assess a model's credibility. For computationally expensive simulations, this is often feasible only via surrogate models that…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-30 Sascha Ranftl , Wolfgang von der Linden

Deep learning has achieved impressive performance on many tasks in recent years. However, it has been found that it is still not enough for deep neural networks to provide only point estimates. For high-risk tasks, we need to assess the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-28 Yuandu Lai , Yucheng Shi , Yahong Han , Yunfeng Shao , Meiyu Qi , Bingshuai Li

Deep neural networks are widely used for classification. These deep models often suffer from a lack of interpretability -- they are particularly difficult to understand because of their non-linear nature. As a result, neural networks are…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-11-22 Oscar Li , Hao Liu , Chaofan Chen , Cynthia Rudin

Standard deep learning methods, such as Ensemble Models, Bayesian Neural Networks and Quantile Regression Models provide estimates to prediction uncertainties for data-driven deep learning models. However, they can be limited in their…

The use of deep learning for medical imaging has seen tremendous growth in the research community. One reason for the slow uptake of these systems in the clinical setting is that they are complex, opaque and tend to fail silently. Outside…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-07-03 Terrance DeVries , Graham W. Taylor

Surrogate models (including deep neural networks and other machine learning algorithms in supervised learning) are capable of approximating arbitrarily complex, high-dimensional input-output problems in science and engineering, but require…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Miguel Sánchez-Domínguez , Lucas Lacasa , Javier de Vicente , Gonzalo Rubio , Eusebio Valero

Existing uncertainty modeling approaches try to detect an out-of-distribution point from the in-distribution dataset. We extend this argument to detect finer-grained uncertainty that distinguishes between (a). certain points, (b). uncertain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-12 Rahul Soni , Naresh Shah , Jimmy D. Moore

In this thesis, we develop various techniques for working with sets in machine learning. Each input or output is not an image or a sequence, but a set: an unordered collection of multiple objects, each object described by a feature vector.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-09 Yan Zhang

The use of deep neural network (DNN) models as surrogates for linear and nonlinear structural dynamical systems is explored. The goal is to develop DNN based surrogates to predict structural response, i.e., displacements and accelerations,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-05 Nan Feng , Guodong Zhang , Kapil Khandelwal

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning regression is of wide interest, as it supports critical applications including sequential decision making and risk-sensitive tasks. In heteroskedastic regression, where the uncertainty of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Mikkel Jordahn , Jonas Vestergaard Jensen , James Harrison , Michael Riis Andersen , Mikkel N. Schmidt

Deep learning tools have gained tremendous attention in applied machine learning. However such tools for regression and classification do not capture model uncertainty. In comparison, Bayesian models offer a mathematically grounded…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-05 Yarin Gal , Zoubin Ghahramani

Deep neural networks have become the default choice for many of the machine learning tasks such as classification and regression. Dropout, a method commonly used to improve the convergence of deep neural networks, generates an ensemble of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-11 Tal Kachman , Michal Moshkovitz , Michal Rosen-Zvi

While complex simulations of physical systems have been widely used in engineering and scientific computing, lowering their often prohibitive computational requirements has only recently been tackled by deep learning approaches. In this…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-10-26 Chuanbo Hua , Federico Berto , Michael Poli , Stefano Massaroli , Jinkyoo Park

We present a deep transformation model for probabilistic regression. Deep learning is known for outstandingly accurate predictions on complex data but in regression tasks, it is predominantly used to just predict a single number. This…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-02 Beate Sick , Torsten Hothorn , Oliver Dürr

Numerical models based on physics represent the state-of-the-art in earth system modeling and comprise our best tools for generating insights and predictions. Despite rapid growth in computational power, the perceived need for higher model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-10 Kate Duffy , Thomas Vandal , Weile Wang , Ramakrishna Nemani , Auroop R. Ganguly