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Obtaining heteroscedastic predictive uncertainties from a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) is vital to many applications. Often, heteroscedastic aleatoric uncertainties are learned as outputs of the BNN in addition to the predictive means,…

This paper uses a probabilistic approach to analyze the converge of an ensemble Kalman filter solution to an exact Kalman filter solution in the simplest possible setting, the scalar case, as it allows us to build upon a rich literature of…

The Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) method is widely used for solving inverse problems, leveraging ensemble-based techniques to iteratively refine parameter estimates. Despite its versatility, the accuracy of EKI is constrained by the…

This paper deals with the identification of linear stochastic dynamical systems, where the unknowns include system coefficients and noise variances. Conventional approaches that rely on the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) require…

This study presents a novel approach to applying data assimilation techniques for particle-based simulations using the Ensemble Kalman Filter. While data assimilation methods have been effectively applied to Eulerian simulations, their…

In this paper, we develop a Bayesian multiscale approach based on a multiscale finite element method. Because of scale disparity in many multiscale applications, computational models can not resolve all scales. Various subgrid models are…

Diffusion models (DMs) have proven to be effective in modeling high-dimensional distributions, leading to their widespread adoption for representing complex priors in Bayesian inverse problems (BIPs). However, current DM-based posterior…

The intersection between classical data assimilation methods and novel machine learning techniques has attracted significant interest in recent years. Here we explore another promising solution in which diffusion models are used to…

The ensemble Kalman filter is a well-known and celebrated data assimilation algorithm. It is of particular relevance as it used for high-dimensional problems, by updating an ensemble of particles through a sample mean and covariance…

Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is the bread and butter of system inference for stochastic systems. In some generality, MLE will converge to the correct model in the infinite data limit. In the context of physical approaches to system…

This work proposes a novel Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM)-based Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) algorithm for solving constrained nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) problems. First, stage-wise nonlinear inequality…

We introduce a framework using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) for likelihood--free inference (LFI) and Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) where we replace the black-box simulator model with an approximator network and generate a…

Ensembles of decision trees are a useful tool for obtaining for obtaining flexible estimates of regression functions. Examples of these methods include gradient boosted decision trees, random forests, and Bayesian CART. Two potential…

Nonlinear function estimation is core to modern machine learning applications. In this paper, to perform nonlinear function estimation, we reduce a nonlinear inverse problem to a linear one using a polynomial kernel expansion. These kernels…

The inverse problem of determining parameters in a model by comparing some output of the model with observations is addressed. This is a description for what hat to be done to use the Gauss-Markov-Kalman filter for the Bayesian estimation…

We present the Koopman State Estimator (KoopSE), a framework for model-free batch state estimation of control-affine systems that makes no linearization assumptions, requires no problem-specific feature selections, and has an inference…

Observational time series data often exhibit both cyclic temporal trends and autocorrelation and may also depend on covariates. As such, there is a need for flexible regression models that are able to capture these trends and model any…

This paper focuses on inverse problems to identify parameters by incorporating information from measurements. These generally ill-posed problems are formulated here in a probabilistic setting based on Bayes's theorem because it leads to a…

The motivation of this work is to improve the performance of standard stacking approaches or ensembles, which are composed of simple, heterogeneous base models, through the integration of the generation and selection stages for regression…

We study Bayesian inverse problems with mixed noise, modeled as a combination of additive and multiplicative Gaussian components. While traditional inference methods often assume fixed or known noise characteristics, real-world…