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The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a popular technique for performing inference in state-space models (SSMs), particularly when the dynamic process is high-dimensional. Unlike reweighting methods such as sequential Monte Carlo (SMC, i.e.…
The transition density of a stochastic, logistic population growth model with multiplicative intrinsic noise is analytically intractable. Inferring model parameter values by fitting such stochastic differential equation (SDE) models to data…
For oceanographic applications, probabilistic forecasts typically have to deal with i) high-dimensional complex models, and ii) very sparse spatial observations. In search-and-rescue operations at sea, for instance, the short-term…
This research introduces a novel methodology for optimizing Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) by synergistically integrating them with traditional machine learning algorithms such as Random Forests (RF), Gradient Boosting (GB), and Support…
We consider the solution of inverse problems in dynamic contrast-enhanced imaging by means of Ensemble Kalman Filters. Our quantity of interest is blood perfusion, i.e. blood flow rates in tissue. While existing approaches to compute blood…
In this paper, we present a new ensemble-based filter method by reconstructing the analysis step of the particle filter through a transport map, which directly transports prior particles to posterior particles. The transport map is…
The ensemble Kalman inversion (EKI), a recently introduced optimisation method for solving inverse problems, is widely employed for the efficient and derivative-free estimation of unknown parameters. Specifically in cases involving…
The ensemble Kalman inversion is widely used in practice to estimate unknown parameters from noisy measurement data. Its low computational costs, straightforward implementation, and non-intrusive nature makes the method appealing in various…
The Bootstrap Particle Filter (BPF) and the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) are two widely used methods for sequential Bayesian filtering: the BPF is asymptotically exact but can suffer from weight degeneracy, while the EnKF scales well in…
Standard maximum likelihood or Bayesian approaches to parameter estimation for stochastic differential equations are not robust to perturbations in the continuous-in-time data. In this paper, we give a rather elementary explanation of this…
A new ensemble filter that allows for the uncertainty in the prior distribution is proposed and tested. The filter relies on the conditional Gaussian distribution of the state given the model-error and predictability-error covariance…
We propose a sampling method based on an ensemble approximation of second order Langevin dynamics. The log target density is appended with a quadratic term in an auxiliary momentum variable and damped-driven Hamiltonian dynamics introduced;…
This paper applies the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) statistical ensemble technique to estimate small molecule solvation free energies. There is a wide range of methods available for predicting solvation free energies, ranging from…
Ensemble learning is a mainstay in modern data science practice. Conventional ensemble algorithms assigns to base models a set of deterministic, constant model weights that (1) do not fully account for variations in base model accuracy…
We propose an efficient online approximate Bayesian inference algorithm for estimating the parameters of a nonlinear function from a potentially non-stationary data stream. The method is based on the extended Kalman filter (EKF), but uses a…
Ensemble filters implement sequential Bayesian estimation by representing the probability distribution by an ensemble mean and covariance. Unbiased square root ensemble filters use deterministic algorithms to produce an analysis (posterior)…
Ensemble Kalman filters are based on a Gaussian assumption, which can limit their performance in some non-Gaussian settings. This paper reviews two nonlinear, non-Gaussian extensions of the Ensemble Kalman Filter: Gaussian anamorphosis (GA)…
We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be…
In this study, an efficient stochastic gradient-free method, the ensemble neural networks (ENN), is developed. In the ENN, the optimization process relies on covariance matrices rather than derivatives. The covariance matrices are…
We investigate adaptive mixture methods that linearly combine outputs of $m$ constituent filters running in parallel to model a desired signal. We use "Bregman divergences" and obtain certain multiplicative updates to train the linear…