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Causality has the potential to truly transform the way we solve a large number of real-world problems. Yet, so far, its potential largely remains to be unlocked as causality often requires crucial assumptions which cannot be tested in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-15 Jeroen Berrevoets , Krzysztof Kacprzyk , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar

Causal machine learning has the potential to revolutionize decision-making by combining the predictive power of machine learning algorithms with the theory of causal inference. However, these methods remain underutilized by the broader…

Effective utilization of time series data is often constrained by the scarcity of data quantity that reflects complex dynamics, especially under the condition of distributional shifts. Existing datasets may not encompass the full range of…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-06-11 Haibei Zhu , Yousef El-Laham , Elizabeth Fons , Svitlana Vyetrenko

Our goal is to estimate causal interactions in multivariate time series. Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models, these can be defined based on non-vanishing coefficients belonging to respective time-lagged instances. As in most cases a…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-08-13 Stefan Haufe , Guido Nolte , Klaus-Robert Mueller , Nicole Kraemer

Despite the excelling performance of machine learning models, understanding their decisions remains a long-standing goal. Although commonly used attribution methods from explainable AI attempt to address this issue, they typically rely on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Juan Miguel Lopez Alcaraz , Nils Strodthoff

Synthetic tabular data generation has received increasing attention in recent years, particularly with the emergence of foundation models for tabular data. The breakthrough success of TabPFN (Hollmann et al.,2025), which leverages vast…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-08 Frederik Hoppe , Astrid Franz , Lars Kleinemeier , Udo Göbel

In this paper we present a comprehensive view of prominent causal discovery algorithms, categorized into two main categories (1) assuming acyclic and no latent variables, and (2) allowing both cycles and latent variables, along with…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-09-13 Karamjit Singh , Garima Gupta , Vartika Tewari , Gautam Shroff

The emergence of generative AI models has dramatically expanded the availability and use of synthetic data across scientific, industrial, and policy domains. While these developments open new possibilities for data analysis, they also raise…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-06 Ahmad Abdel-Azim , Ruoyu Wang , Xihong Lin

Causal discovery (CD) from time-varying data is important in neuroscience, medicine, and machine learning. Techniques for CD encompass randomized experiments, which are generally unbiased but expensive, and algorithms such as Granger…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-11 Xinyue Wang , Konrad Paul Kording

Time series causal discovery is essential for understanding dynamic systems, yet many existing methods remain sensitive to noise, non-stationarity, and sampling variability. We propose the Validated Consensus-Driven Framework (VCDF), a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-26 Gene Yu , Ce Guo , Wayne Luk

Time series generation (TSG) synthesizes realistic sequences and has achieved remarkable success. Among TSG, conditional models generate sequences given observed covariates, however, such models learn observational correlations without…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Yutong Xia , Chang Xu , Yuxuan Liang , Li Zhao , Qingsong Wen , Roger Zimmermann , Jiang Bian

Multivariate time series is a very active topic in the research community and many machine learning tasks are being used in order to extract information from this type of data. However, in real-world problems data has missing values, which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-26 Samuel Arcadinho , Paulo Mateus

Meta-analysis, by synthesizing effect estimates from multiple studies conducted in diverse settings, stands at the top of the evidence hierarchy in clinical research. Yet, conventional approaches based on fixed- or random-effects models…

Time series data is ubiquitous across various domains such as finance, healthcare, and manufacturing, but their properties can vary significantly depending on the domain they originate from. The ability to perform Content-based Time Series…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-11-07 Chin-Chia Michael Yeh , Huiyuan Chen , Xin Dai , Yan Zheng , Yujie Fan , Vivian Lai , Junpeng Wang , Audrey Der , Zhongfang Zhuang , Liang Wang , Wei Zhang

Beneficial to advanced computing devices, models with massive parameters are increasingly employed to extract more information to enhance the precision in describing and predicting the patterns of objective systems. This phenomenon is…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-03-08 Liye Jia , Fengyufan Yang , Ka Lok Man , Erick Purwanto , Sheng-Uei Guan , Jeremy Smith , Yutao Yue

Many multivariate time series anomaly detection frameworks have been proposed and widely applied. However, most of these frameworks do not consider intrinsic relationships between variables in multivariate time series data, thus ignoring…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-11 Falih Gozi Febrinanto , Kristen Moore , Chandra Thapa , Mujie Liu , Vidya Saikrishna , Jiangang Ma , Feng Xia

Classification is a well-studied machine learning task which concerns the assignment of instances to a set of outcomes. Classification models support the optimization of managerial decision-making across a variety of operational business…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-19 Wouter Verbeke , Diego Olaya , Jeroen Berrevoets , Sam Verboven , Sebastián Maldonado

This paper discusses the fundamental principles of causal inference - the area of statistics that estimates the effect of specific occurrences, treatments, interventions, and exposures on a given outcome from experimental and observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-03 Francesca Dominici , Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Fabrizia Mealli

Causal discovery aims to uncover cause-and-effect relationships encoded in causal graphs by leveraging observational, interventional data, or their combination. The majority of existing causal discovery methods are developed assuming…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-25 Muhammad Qasim Elahi , Lai Wei , Murat Kocaoglu , Mahsa Ghasemi

The machine learning community has mainly relied on real data to benchmark algorithms as it provides compelling evidence of model applicability. Evaluation on synthetic datasets can be a powerful tool to provide a better understanding of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-01 Florence Regol , Anja Kroon , Mark Coates