Related papers: Interval-censored Hawkes processes
Given a stationary point process, an intensity burst is defined as a short time period during which the number of counts is larger than the typical count rate. It might signal a local non-stationarity or the presence of an external…
Interval-censored multi state data is collected when the state of a subject is observed periodically. The analysis of such data using non-parametric multi-state models was not possible until recently, but is very desirable as it allows for…
The event sequence of many diverse systems is represented as a sequence of discrete events in a continuous space. Examples of such an event sequence are earthquake aftershock events, financial transactions, e-commerce transactions, social…
We study online change point detection for multivariate inhomogeneous Poisson point process time series. This setting arises commonly in applications such as earthquake seismology, climate monitoring, and epidemic surveillance, yet remains…
Temporal networks are characterised by interdependent link events between nodes, forming ordered sequences of links that may represent specific information flows in the system. Nevertheless, representing temporal networks using discrete…
A possibly time-dependent transition intensity matrix or generator $(Q(t))$ characterizes the law of a Markov jump process (MP). For a time homogeneous MP, the transition probability matrix (TPM) can be expressed as a matrix exponential of…
Animal acoustic communication often exhibits temporal dependence, with calls triggering or suppressing subsequent calls within and across call types, individuals, or species. While Hawkes processes provide a natural framework for modeling…
We introduce a multivariate Hawkes process with constraints on its conditional density. It is a multivariate point process with conditional intensity similar to that of a multivariate Hawkes process but certain events are forbidden with…
We consider a sequence of systems of Hawkes processes having mean field interactions in a diffusive regime. The stochastic intensity of each process is a solution of a stochastic differential equation driven by N independent Poisson random…
Blinded sample size re-estimation and information monitoring based on blinded data has been suggested to mitigate risks due to planning uncertainties regarding nuisance parameters. Motivated by a randomized controlled trial in pediatric…
Temporal networks consist of timestamped directed interactions that may appear continuously in time, yet few studies have directly tackled the continuous-time modeling of networks. Here, we introduce a maximum-entropy approach to temporal…
The Hawkes self-excited point process provides an efficient representation of the bursty intermittent dynamics of many physical, biological, geological and economic systems. By expressing the probability for the next event per unit time…
Existing spatio-temporal Hawkes process models typically rely on either parametric or semiparametric assumptions, limiting the model's ability to capture complex endogenous and exogenous event dynamics. We propose a fully Bayesian…
We address the common problem of calculating intervals in the presence of systematic uncertainties. We aim to investigate several approaches, but here describe just a Bayesian technique for setting upper limits. The particular example we…
Across a wide variety of applications, the self-exciting Hawkes process has been used to model phenomena in which the history of events influences future occurrences. However, there may be many situations in which the past events only…
The quantitative analysis of non-invasive electrophysiology signals from electroencephalography (EEG) and magnetoencephalography (MEG) boils down to the identification of temporal patterns such as evoked responses, transient bursts of…
Motivated by a real failure dataset in a two-dimensional context, this paper presents an extension of the Markov modulated Poisson process (MMPP) to two dimensions. The one-dimensional MMPP has been proposed for the modeling of dependent…
Epilepsy is a neurological disorder characterized by recurrent seizures affecting more than 70 million people worldwide. Often, an individual with epilepsy is more likely to experience subsequent seizures following an initial seizure, a…
We consider the nonparametric multivariate isotonic regression problem, where the regression function is assumed to be nondecreasing with respect to each predictor. Our goal is to construct a Bayesian credible interval for the function…
In this paper, we present a maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of a univariate Hawkes process with self-excitation or inhibition. Our work generalizes techniques and results that were restricted to the self-exciting…